The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox face off at Fenway Park on May 15 in the third of a four game set — with each side winning a game apiece.
Tampa has owned this AL East rivalry in recent years, but my Rays vs. Red Sox prediction sees another win from the home side. Find out why in my MLB picks ahead.
Rays vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Red Sox moneyline (-130 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Boston Red Sox are sending Tanner Houck who's currently enjoying a breakout season. Although Houck has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two starts, he still has a sizzling 2.24 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP through 52 1/3 innings.
While regression was inevitable after an incredible April, the fact his xERA sits at 3.34 while his barrel rate and ground ball rate are in the Top 15th percentile bodes well for his long-term success. He should have that against a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that's just 28th in hard-hit rate and dead-last in barrel rate.
The Red Sox have been inconsistent at the dish but they've still been much better than that, ranking 15th in hard hit rate and 13th in barrel rate. I'm also not sold on Tampa Bay starter Taj Bradley. Bradley came into the 2023 season as Tampa Bay's highest rated prospect but finished his rookie year with a 5.59 ERA over 21 starts while sitting in the bottom fifth percentile in hard hit rate and exit velocity.
Bradley returned from injury to make his season debut last Friday against the Yankees, and while he allowed just one run and fanned seven batters in six innings, his xERA of 6.55 and sky-high hard hit rate are cause for concern. It doesn't get any better after Bradley, with Tampa's bullpen pitching to a 4.54 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP while Boston's relievers have a collective 3.12 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
With the Red Sox holding the edge in most areas and also having home-field advantage, I'll gladly back them on the moneyline at a reasonable -130.
Rays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Red Sox moneyline
Taj Bradley Over 5.5 strikeouts
Taj Bradley Over 1.5 walks
Although Bradley gives up too much hard contact, he also generates plenty of whiffs. Bradley fanned seven in six innings against the Yankees in his season debut, and he's now struck out six plus batters in six of his last nine starts going back to 2023.
The Red Sox are just 28th in the majors in strikeout rate (26.1%) and Bradley had games of six and eight punchouts against them at the beginning of last season. That said, while Bradley can make batters miss, he also has issues with his control. He has walked two or more batters in seven of his last nine starts.
As long as Bradley doesn't exit this game early, he should be able to eclipse both of these numbers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Red Sox odds
Rays vs Red Sox live odds
Rays vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-180) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +125 | Boston -150
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115)
Rays vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Early money has come in on the Rays and the Under, slimming Boston's ML from -150 to -130 and moving the total down to 8.0.
- The Red Sox are 22-20 this season and thanks to the lowest ERA (2.78) in the majors they have a run differential of +32.
- The Rays are just a game and a half behind Boston at 21-22 but they are 22nd in the majors in run differential (-31).
- The Rays are 22-8 in the last 30 meetings between these AL East foes.
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Rays vs Red Sox trend
The Under is 12-1 in Boston's last 13 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs Red Sox.
Rays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, NESN |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Taj Bradley (0-1, 1.50 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (3-4, 2.24 ERA) |
Rays vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rays vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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