The Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres have been putting on a show this weekend in San Diego, and after a tight 2-0 win for the home team on Saturday, they’ll be in position to try and steal a rare series win from one of the best teams in baseball.
I break it all down in my Rays vs. Padres MLB betting picks below.
Rays vs Padres odds
Rays vs Padres predictions
Joe Musgrove has been looking more and more like No-No Joe lately. This is a man who earned that nickname with an impressive no-hitter years ago — and some subsequent dominance of the National League — but owns an ugly 4.27 ERA through nine starts.
Well, not only does Musgrove’s 2.96 xERA suggest he’s been better than that, his latest starts have been pretty stellar. He owns a 2.12 ERA in three June starts, which have taken him across 17 innings, and his strikeout rate is beginning to climb back up at 22.9%.
Musgrove has always been fond of the ground ball, and this season he’s once again rolled them up at a 46.5% clip. The Rays happen to rank 13th in ground ball rate and are up to ninth in the last two weeks, perhaps offering some hope for Musgrove.
The San Diego Padres have turned a new leaf offensively and rank fifth in wRC+ over the last week of play, so with Musgrove dealing against a slumping and ground ball-happy Tampa Bay Rays team, I feel good about them here.
My best bet: Padres moneyline (-145 at BetMGM)
Rays vs Padres same-game parlay
Padres ML
Xander Bogaerts 2+ total bases
Joe Musgrove 5+ strikeouts
Xander Bogaerts has seen Yonny Chirinos plenty dating back to his days with the Red Sox, and he’s always hit him. The shortstop owns a .400 batting average in 15 at-bats against Chirinos with two doubles and a home run.
Bogaerts is one of the hottest Padres in the lineup right now with a .357 average over the last two weeks and a spicy .500 slugging percentage. I also like Fernando Tatis in this spot, considering he’s been even hotter, but the value on Bogaerts is greater here.
The Rays have been shockingly bad at the plate lately, posting a 24.8% strikeout rate in the last two weeks. That’s reason to fire up Musgrove’s strikeout prop; he’s punched out 13 in his last 11 innings and has gone for 5+ strikeouts in seven of his nine starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Rays vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Despite everything I’ve just said above about the Padres and how the Rays have struggled, the line really hasn’t moved all that much either way. The Padres actually opened up at -150 and while those numbers are still on the board, you’ll also find San Diego close to -140 at some shops.
Unsurprisingly, DraftKings is reporting that 40% of the tickets here are on the Padres and just 38% of the handle is on the home team. As for the total, 43% of the tickets are on the Over but just 38% of the handle is on a high-scoring game.
If I were to play the total, I’d probably side with the Under here. While I do think Chirinos has been a bit fortunate to pitch around so many batted balls and love the matchup for a free-swinging Padres team, I do respect the work he’s done this year with a 2.35 ERA and the bullpen behind him should remain strong.
Chirinos’ expected wOBA on contact is just .343, so you can even make some arguments he deserves good numbers despite his high 4.70 xERA.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-0-1 in the Rays’ last six interleague road games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Padres
Rays vs Padres game info
| Location: | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 18, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Yonny Chirinos (3-1, 2.35 ERA): The swingman has been solid this season out of the bullpen and will be making his third start of the season. His first start didn’t go so well, but he did throw 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in his last start.
Jose Musgrove (4-2, 4.37 ERA): The tall right-hander is working his way back into form, but he wasn’t great last time out against the Guardians. Musgrove will be aiming to rebound from giving up three runs on seven hits over six frames.
