Rays vs Braves Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

The Atlanta Braves offense is finally gaining traction, and our expert MLB picks believe their lineup is due for more positive regression when they face Tampa Bay starter Ryan Pepiot. Read on as Phil Naessens has you covered with his latest MLB handicap.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Jun 15, 2024 • 13:24 ET • 4 min read
Ryan Pepiot Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves can win their second consecutive home series when they host the Tampa Bay Rays.

Atlanta's offense is catching fire, and my Rays vs. Braves predictions see this trend continuing against Tampa starter Ryan Pepiot. 

Find out more in our MLB picks for Saturday, June 15.

My best bet
Ryan Pepiot Under 16.5 outs (-120 at BetMGM)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

Despite the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear, the Atlanta Braves have started to heat up offensively, plating 13 runs in their last two games. 

The Braves offense boasts a .297 BABIP, which is far above their .244 batting average, and their recent performances suggest the offense may continue seeing positive regression. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Ryan Pepiot is serving up 1.23 bombs per nine innings, and a career-high 41% hard-hit rate suggests the 26-year-old is in severe trouble tonight.

The Braves offense has scored at least five runs in three of their last five and is coming off chasing Zack Littell after just two innings of work. Pepiot has surrendered four bombs across his last 23 2/3 frames and that could be troublesome on a humid day, with slight winds blowing out to right center field. 

Expect an early exit for the Rays starter in this one. 

Rays vs Braves same-game parlay (SGP)

Ryan Pepiot Under 16.5 outs

Ryan Pepiot Over 2.5 earned runs

Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 total bases

Pepiot has surrendered Over 2.5 earned runs in four of his last five starts, and his high BABIP combined with his 3.43 xFIP suggest an early hook today. 

Marcell Ozuna is riding a four-game hitting streak and has cleared his prop number in seven of his past 10. The Braves designated hitter boasts a 1.010 OPS against righties, which includes a 55% hard-hit rate.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rays vs Braves odds

Rays vs Braves live odds

Rays vs Braves opening odds

  • Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-160) | Atlanta -1.5 (+135)
  • Moneyline: Tampa Bay +125 | Atlanta -150
  • Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)

Rays vs Braves spread and Over/Under analysis

  • At DraftKings, 83% of the bets and 93% of the cash are backing the Braves on the money line.
  • Some O/U 9.0 openers are now down to 8.5, trading anywhere from -122 to -130. The best Under market is Under 9.0 (-120), with Under 8.5 listed at either +100 or +105.
  • The Rays have only hit the F5 team total Over in 21 of their last 67 games (-34.85 Units / -42% ROI).

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Rays vs Braves trend

Ryan Pepiot is averaging 15.8 outs across his last 10 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Braves

Rays vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Saturday, 6-15-2024
First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Southeast, Bally Sun
Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot
(4-2, 3.96 ERA)
Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton
(3-3, 4.12 ERA)

Rays vs Braves latest injuries

Rays vs Braves weather

Not intended for use in MA.
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