Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: Lowly Arizona the Perfect Bounce Back for Bauer

A full MLB slate means we've got to work extra hard to find the best MLB prop pick values for you. But don't worry, we've done just that as we're banking on Trevor Bauer bouncing back, while the Twins and Braves exploit weak opposing pitchers.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Jun 18, 2021 • 11:44 ET • 5 min read
Trevor Bauer Los Angeles Dodgers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There is a full slate of 15 games on the MLB betting board this Friday, which means tons of MLB prop betting markets to sink our teeth into. 

Today, we back the big Braves bats, take a Minnesota side that looks to be in a juicy matchup with the Rangers, and expect a bounce-back performance from one of the best pitchers in the majors in Trevor Bauer. 

Here are our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Friday, June 18.

Today’s MLB props and picks

Atlanta Team Total Over 4.5 (-125)

The Atlanta Braves host the St. Louis Cardinals tonight after defeating them 4-0 yesterday. Led by Ronald Acuna Jr. and 2020 NL MVP Freddie Freeman, the Braves have one of the most explosive offenses in the game.

They are especially productive at home, where they plate 5.32 runs per game and have an OPS of .796. Atlanta batters could be poised for another big performance today as they go up against Cardinals starter Carlos Martinez.

Martinez is coming off a strong start against the Cubs but he has still struggled this season, pitching to a 5.54 ERA across 12 starts. 

The right-hander was a productive starter several years ago but injuries sent him to the bullpen in 2019 and he looked awful in a handful of starts last season pitching to a 9.90 ERA. Fade Martinez and take the Over on Atlanta's team total. 

First Five Innings Minnesota Twins -0.5 (-114)

The Minnesota Twins face off against the Texas Rangers and while neither team has looked good this season, the Twins have a pretty big edge both at the plate and on the mound tonight. 

Jose Berrios toes the rubber for the Twins and he's 7-2 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 13 starts. Mike Foltynewicz gets the call for the Rangers and he's gone just 1-7 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 13 starts. Folty has also been lit up lately, allowing 16 hits and 12 earned runs through 6 1-3 innings in his previous two outings. 

His teammates likely won't give him much run support either with the Rangers 26st in the majors in OPS (.670) while the Twins rank ninth with an OPS of .743.

With the Rangers ranking 28th in the majors in first five innings runs per game (1.97), back Minnesota to have a lead after five innings. 

Trevor Bauer Under 2.5 earned runs (-110)

Dodgers ace Trevor Bauer has looked uncharacteristically shaky in his last three starts, pitching to a 4.74 ERA across 19 innings. That said, the 2020 NL Cy Young winner has a terrific track record and should be in a good spot for a bounce-back tonight.

Before his recent skid, Bauer was having another fantastic campaign and had allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his previous 10 starts. 

Even with his recent uneven play, the right-hander has a 2.64 ERA and 0.95 WHIP on the year and will be facing a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks just 23rd in the majors with an OPS of .684. Take the Under 2.5 earned runs for Bauer.

MLB betting card for June 18

  • Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-125)
  • First Five Innings Minnesota Twins -0.5 (-114)
  • Trevor Bauer Under 2.5 earned runs (-110)

Picks made on 6/18/2021 at 11:30 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on MLB props?

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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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