While there are a few early games on the MLB schedule, the night is full of betting opportunities. We're highlighting three player prop picks worth your consideration among tonight's action, including two NL pitchers — one to get a win and another to go Over his modest strikeout total — and a somehow unheralded AL hitter once again getting significant plus money to go Over his total bases prop.
Let's get to it with our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Thursday, July 7.
MLB props for July 7
Picks made on 7/7/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Gonsolin baby, Gonsolin
Two main things have to go right for a pitcher win prop to pay off: run support and length.
As we all should know by now, a pitcher's win-loss record is not a precise way to measure his quality. As the likes of Jacob deGrom and Felix Hernandez can attest, you can't win without run support.
Fortunately for Tony Gonsolin, the Lost Angeles Dodgers have complemented his success on the mound very well this season. Gonsolin has gone 10-0 in his 15 starts this season and the Dodgers have scored at least five runs in six of those victories, which has been more than enough as the right-hander hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in any of his 15 appearances in 2022.
And while that run suppression is necessary, the ability to pitch deep into games is going to bolster his opportunity to take home the victory even more. The Dodgers eased Gonsolin into action to start the season, but he's completed six or more innings in seven of his last nine starts.
The Cubs are answering with Mark Leiter Jr., who has primarily been used as a long reliever in 2022. He tossed 5 1-3 innings — his longest outing of the year — in relief during his last appearance on July 2 against the Boston Red Sox, allowing just one run on three hits. That isn't representative of his overall resume this season, though, as he owns a 4.85 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers own the best run differential in the National League at +144. With Gonsolin's ability to keep offenses at bay combined with the Dodgers' potent offense measuring up well against the Cubs deploying a bullpen day, it's a great time to target the starter to walk away with the win.
Tony Gonsolin prop: To record a win (+105 at DraftKings)
Jays rough up Gonzales
Seattle Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales is playing with fire and his 3.29 ERA over 16 starts is a total smokescreen. He's boasting an expected ERA of 4.74 as well as an unseemly 5.23 FIP. With a BABIP of .251 against and a paltry 5.03 strikeouts per nine innings, he's getting a lot of luck while also tiptoeing out of danger at almost all corners.
Gonzales' strikeout percentage of 13 is tied with Dakota Hudson for the lowest among all qualified starters this season. He's found success by limiting hard contact, but the soft-tossing southpaw (averages 88 mph on his four-seamer) is up against it tonight when the Toronto Blue Jays come to town.
The righty-heavy Blue Jays rank seventh in MLB with a .258 batting average against left-handed pitching. Among them is catcher Alejandro Kirk, who is 16-for-53 (.302) vs. lefties this season. Initially, the Over on Gonzales' hits allowed prop (+120 at bet365) seemed very enticing — and it's still worth a look — but Kirk is listed at +150 to go Over 1.5 total bases, and that's the most appealing play in this matchup.
Books haven't seemed to fully adjust to Kirk's hitting prowess despite his continued and sustained success at the plate. He has 21 multi-hit games this season and is hitting .317 on the whole, so even if the Seattle bullpen turns to a righty, Kirk doesn't necessarily face a handedness disadvantage.
Facing a pitch-to-contact hurler like Gonzales, Kirk is in a fantastic position to rip together another two-hit effort. For a player consistently doing damage to be available at this number, it's too much value to pass up.
Alejandro Kirk Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at bet365)
Liberatore liberates strikeout pitch
St. Louis Cardinals rookie hurler Matthew Liberatore has looked sharp in places and decidedly the opposite in others as he's bounced between spot starts in the majors and being part of the Triple-A rotation. At first blush, the Atlanta Braves should cause him plenty of headaches.
And they very well could with the likes of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley stepping into the batter's box. But, Liberatore should be able to rack up some strikeouts before departing — whether with or without the lead.
The Phillies touched Liberatore up for five runs on seven hits while striking out three times over 2 2-3 innings. The silver lining there is Liberatore didn't make things worse with the free pass, issuing only one walk in the abbreviated outing. That, and he was on pace to top today's number of 3.5 strikeouts had he not been justifiably pulled.
The Braves, for as potent as the offense can be, strike out a lot and their 24% strikeout rate against left-handers is fifth-highest in MLB, so Liberatore doesn't need a particularly good outing to take advantage of this total.
Matthew Liberatore Prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $87.84 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
