Cardinals vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Should Jump Out to Early Lead

The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals will wrap up a four-game series in the Peach State on Thursday night. If the Braves aren't the hottest team in baseball, they are certainly one of them.

Atlanta is on the verge of sweeping this critical National League tilt. After a 3-0 win over the Cardinals last night, they are now tied for the best record in the MLB over the span of the last 10 games, and are also in the Top 5 in our MLB Power Rankings.

Unfortunately, it's been a bit of a slide for St. Louis, as the Cards have lost seven of their last 10. Despite their struggles, they're still just three games back of first in the NL Central. Can they get back on track tonight and avoid the sweep?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Cardinals vs. Braves on Thursday, July 7.

Cardinals vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The odds opened today with the Braves as heavy favorites, and they have even taken more money. As of publication, Atlanta was around -220 across the board with St Louis returning at around +190. The total opened up at nine and has remained there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Cardinals vs Braves predictions

• Prediction: Braves F5 -1.5 (+100)
• Prediction: Braves F5 TT Over 2.5 (-145)
• Best bet: SGP, Strider over 7.5 strikeouts + Olson Over 1.5 bases (+388)

Picks made on 7/07/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Cardinals vs Braves game info

• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, July 7, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports

Cardinals vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Matthew Liberatore (2-1, 5.66 ERA): Liberatore has been the true definition of an all-or-nothing pitcher this season. Two of his five starts have been scoreless and gone for quality starts. The other three have resulted in him giving up four or more earned runs and recording nine outs or more. Liberatore's ground ball, flyball, and line-drive rates all align with the league average. However, his putrid hard-hit rate of over 53% is the one thing that stands out as a big negative. He hasn't thrown enough pitches this season to be on a qualified leaderboard of this category, but if he were, it would rank near the bottom of the league. In his last outing, he gave up five earned runs in just over two innings against the Phillies.

Spencer Strider (4-2, 2.87 ERA): Strider has been pretty impressive almost midway through the season. He has 90 strikeouts to his name, and his xERA suggests he's performing just as he should. Strider's best attribute is creating the swing and miss as his strikeout and whiff rates are elite, and his chase rate is above league average. His hard-hit and barrel rates also only rank slightly below league average, allowing just 0.45 home runs per nine innings. June was an excellent month for Strider as he gave up just nine earned runs in 25 innings. Six of those runs came in one game against the Giants.

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last six outings during Game 4 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Braves

Cardinals vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

You don't need to look to close to find a side on this one. We have a pitcher on the mound for the Cardinals who struggles to give up hard hits and that's a problem against about half of of the teams in baseball. It's especially disastrous against the Atlanta Braves.

At the onset, I pointed out the uneven nature of Liberatore's starts. By picking against him today, we're going against the trends. Each time he's had a bad start, he's followed it up with a good start. Since he's coming off that bad outing against the Phillies, the trends would be pointing towards a bounce-back performance today.

I'm predicting we will break the trend today, however. Atlanta ranks second in barrel rate, third in hard-hit, and fourth in exit velocity. My projections that make up the weekly MLB Power Rankings place them as actually the best offense in baseball.

I will not overcomplicate this handicap more than it needs to. We've got a massive pitching edge on the mound, but even without that, the Braves have too much of an offensive advantage to be overlooked here. I see the most prominent edge on this one in the First Five market.

I give the Braves a 65% chance of having a lead after five innings, so I'm going to take a risk and back the run line. It's hard for me to imagine Liberatore having any success against a lineup that seems like a nightmare matchup.

Prediction: Braves first five innings -1.5 (+100 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

We'll stay on the theme here and continue to target the Cardinals' starting pitcher. 

Over the first five innings, the Atlanta Braves have scored the second-most runs in baseball over their last five games, and attacking a bad pitcher early in games has been their calling card for a while. They averaged just over 3.5 runs a season ago against pitchers with an ERA over 4.00, and that number has virtually remained the same this season.

Once again, I see the most considerable edge here coming in the first five innings. Even though we're paying for some juice at -145, I think it's worth it. My projections have this going Over the posted number around 62% of the time.

The crux of this handicap is again reasonably simple, as Liberatore struggles with teams that hit the ball hard, and he's getting offense that already does that at an elite level.

Prediction: Braves first five innings Over 2.5 (-145 at DraftKings)

Best bet

One of my favorite things about Spencer Strider being on the mound is backing his strikeout props. Strider has been a machine at punching guys out, with a K rate that ranks in the Top 5 of all eligible MLB pitchers. Today, the number is 7.5 and Strider has surpassed that number in only four of his 18 starts, including his last outing, where he had 11.

But what's unique about this matchup is the Cardinals have the fifth-highest chase rate in baseball. I'll take my chances, especially given how this Cardinals team has looked at the plate in this series.

They've averaged Over seven in their last three, which goes up on the road. I like the situational aspect of the Cardinals hitters pressing a bit more, desperate to avoid being swept. Back Strider and the Ks on the mound today, but don't stop there.

I'm going to pair it with Matt Olson Over 1.5 bases as the Braves' first baseman has the second-highest barrel rate and hard-hit rate on the roster, making him the perfect candidate to attack the flaws of Liberatore.

Pick: SGP: Strider Over 7.5 strikeouts and Olson Over 1.5 total bases (+388 at FanDuel)

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