Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: We're Going West

We have a West Coast flavor to today's MLB prop bets — as we're backing San Fran ace Kevin Gausman to get back on track and the Colorado Rockies to stay hot at home — but we're also mixing in one of our favorite new plays: fading J.A. Happ.

Posted: Aug 4, 2021 10:54 AM ET Updated: Aug 4, 2021 10:54 AM ET Est Time: 5 min
San Francisco Giants Kevin Gausman MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

You didn’t think just because J.A. Happ moved from the Minnesota Twins to the St. Louis Cardinals that Happy Fade Happ Day would go away, did you? Not a chance.

The lefty with a penchant for giving up knocks makes his debut for the Cardinals, and you know we are all over his hits allowed MLB prop bet. Then we turn our attention to Coors Field where the Rockies still have some baseball betting value in the five-inning market.

We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Wednesday, August 4

Today’s MLB props and picks

J.A. Happ Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)

Did you think that just because J.A. Happ moved from the Minnesota Twins to the St. Louis Cardinals that Happy Happ Day was canceled?

Not a chance.

Happ is obviously hoping a change of scenery will help his results but the way he has been pitching lately doesn’t exactly suggest a turnaround is coming anytime soon.

The last two months have been anything but smooth for the lefty. Happ is pitching to an enlarged 8.13 ERA and is allowing opponents to hit a gaudy .355. Happ also ranks in the Bottom-10 percentile in the MLB when it comes to expected ERA, expected batting average, expected slugging, and barrel percentage. That ain’t great. 

And it’s not like he gets an easy test in his first start with the Cards, as the Atlanta Braves come to town. The Braves lineup has obviously lost some pop without Ronald Acuna Jr. but still ranks Top 10 in scoring and OPS, and over the last month ranks ninth in batting average and OPS when facing left-handed pitching.

With Happ allowing an average of 8.2 hits per start over his last 10 starts and allowing more than this number nine times in those 10 games, why should anything change in St. Louis?

Rockies Five-Inning Moneyline (-135)

We’re going back to the well with the Colorado Rockies at home, after they came through for us yesterday by thumping the new-look Chicago Cubs 13-6 and improving their five-inning moneyline record to 31-13-10. 

As noted in yesterday’s article, the Rockies are a completely different team at the home than they are on the road. Colorado has a more than respectable 34-20 record at Coors Field and ranks second in scoring, first in batting average, and second in OPS when playing there.

The Rockies hand the ball to right-hander Jon Gray for Game 2, who has pitched very well recently. Gray owns a 2.61 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .200 batting average over his last seven starts. 

Gray faces a Cubs team that is 20-36 on the road, and that was with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez for the most part. Chicago ranks 24th in scoring, 28th in average, and 26th in OPS when playing on the road this season.

Right-hander Alec Mills will be on the bump for the Cubbies, who has a 5.93 ERA and 1.62 WHIP when pitching on the road in 2021. This means we like the Rockies to keep rolling at home.

Giants Five-Inning Moneyline (-115)

Everyone keeps waiting for the San Francisco Giants to fall back and cede the National League West lead to the Los Angeles Dodgers. But don’t tell the Giants that — even with last night’s loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco still leads the division by 3.5 games with just under two months to go in the season.

The Giants have a great chance to get back in the win column tonight as they hand the ball to ace Kevin Gausman for Game 2 of the series against the D-backs.

Gausman has been in a bit of a funk since coming out of the All-Star break but still owns an impressive 2.35 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP and a matchup with the D-backs could be just what he needs to get back on track. The right-hander limited Arizona to two runs on nine hits in 13 innings over two starts against them this season.

The D-backs counter with a right-hander of their own in Zac Gallen. It has been an up-and-down season for Gallen, and his 4.61 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP reflect that. While he is coming off a strong start against the Dodgers, he hasn’t lasted more than 2 2-3 innings in each of his two starts against the Giants in 2021 and in those two outings, Gallen has been lit up for seven runs on nine hits and four walks in 4 2-3 combined innings of work.

The Giants also rank third in OPS when it comes to facing right-handed pitching over the last month and we like them to have the lead through five innings in this one. 

MLB betting card for August 4

  • J.A. Happ Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
  • Rockies Five-Inning Moneyline (-135)
  • Giants Five-Inning Moneyline (-115)

Picks made on 8/4/2021 at 11:11 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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