Indians vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Mejia vs. Matz a Recipe for the Over

The Blue Jays offense finally woke up yesterday, dropping seven runs against Cleveland. Facing a struggling rookie starter tonight, we like the Jays to continue mashing — and notch their 20th straight win by more than one run.

Posted: Aug 4, 2021 9:09 AM ET Updated: Aug 4, 2021 9:09 AM ET Est Time: 4 min
George Springer Toronto Blue Jays MLB
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The Toronto Blue Jays evened their series with the Cleveland Indians yesterday after a convincing 7-2 win and have now won six of their last seven games. Fans at the Roger Center could be in for some run-scoring in Wednesday's rubber match as both clubs will be starting struggling pitchers.

The Blue Jays are looking to go on a run over the next two months after upgrading the rotation and bullpen and currently sit three games out of the Wild Card, while Cleveland is six games back.

Toronto opened as a -200 MLB betting favorite with the total set at 10 and leaning to the Under.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Indians vs. Blue Jays on Wednesday, August 4, with first pitch set for 7:07 p.m. ET.

Indians vs Blue Jays game info

Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date: Wednesday, August 4, 2021
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
TV: Rogers Sportsnet, Bally Sports Great Lakes

Indians vs Blue Jays odds

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Indians vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

J.C. Mejia (1-6, 7.60 ERA): It wasn’t a pretty July for the rookie right-hander as Mejia posted a 10.55 ERA in the month, with opponents sporting a 1.023 OPS. He’s also served up eight homers over his last 21 1-3 innings. The Indians have dropped Mejia’s last five starts and the pitcher hasn’t picked up a win since May 24 — a span of 12 outings.

Steven Matz (8-6, 4.58 ERA): The Toronto left-hander has lost his last two starts and has just one win since June 13. He is coming off a rough start versus the Red Sox, who shelled him for four runs on nine hits over three-plus innings. Matz generated just five whiffs in that start, as his strikeouts were down over July and the lefty has let batters put a ton of balls in play: Since June 1, opponents are hitting .305 against the Blue Jays’ starter.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Indians: Josh Naylor OF (Out).
Blue Jays: Danny Jansen C (Out), Cavan Biggio IF (Out), Julian Merryweather RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Indians are 0-5 in Mejia’s last five starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Indians vs. Blue Jays.

Run line pick

Cleveland came into the Rogers Center and snapped the Blue Jays’ four-game winning streak with a 5-2 win in extra innings on Monday. Coincidentally, it was former Cleveland reliever Brad Hand who took the loss for the Jays but Toronto got back in the win column yesterday, thanks to fine starting pitching and an offense that woke up.

It’s tough not to favor the Jays when Cleveland is starting a pitcher who has allowed 25 runs over his last five starts and has been taken deep eight times. J.C. Mejia also owns an 8.33 ERA across eight road games (seven starts) and should not be trusted even as a streamer on your fantasy team, let alone with your hard-earned money. Cleveland has lost eight of his last 10 starts with six of those eight losses coming by two or more runs.

Considering Mejia’s struggles, we are getting a decent price on the ML (-200) and an even better one on the RL (-117) considering this Jays’ team has been slightly overvalued for the last five or so games.

Steven Matz doesn’t give us a ton of confidence either, with a 1.714 WHIP at home this year. Yes, we know the Jays are basically bedouins at this point and Matz has yet to pitch in Canada this season, but a 1.714 WHIP in non-official home games is a horrendous number.

The Indians have a Bottom-15 road offense (4.73 runs per game) but even the Tribe should hit the lefty, who is struggling to miss bats and getting hit to a near-.900 OPS since June 1.

For us, it basically comes down to offense. The Jays' lineup is exponentially better than Cleveland's and leads the Indians in every offensive metric you can think of. If you must take a side, our best option is the Jays -1.5 (-117) as teams have covered against Mejia in five of his last six starts and the Jays have won by more than one run in each of their last 19 wins... Toronto is not accustomed to winning by a single run.

If you’re looking for value in a derivative market, both teams to score four runs is paying +125. Mejia has allowed four or more runs by himself in five straight and six of his last seven while Matz has also allowed four or more runs in three of his last seven.

PREDICTION: Toronto -1.5 (-117)

Over/Under pick

Both teams come into Wednesday’s match with healthy offenses, but that hasn’t exactly translated to runs over the last week. Toronto is 1-7-1 O/U in its last nine games and has averaged five runs per game over its last 10.

Cleveland needed three extra-inning runs to score five on Monday and scratched across just two runs yesterday on seven hits. Things could change for both teams on Wednesday, however, with a pair of generous starters taking the mound.

Matz pitched well in the first three months, but things have gotten ugly in the summer. He’s 2-5 with a 5.30 ERA in June and July with an OPS against of .889. He is 8-5 O/U in his last 13 starts and gave up four runs over five innings in his only meeting with the Indians earlier this year.

Mejia is a 24-year-old rookie who has been getting rocked. He owns a 2.0 HR/9, which is an awful mark and would rank in the Bottom 10 if he had enough innings to qualify. He gets hit hard, walks guys, and has an average exit velocity of 90 mph. Half of the balls in play against the righty are registered as hard contact — a start against the Jays’ potent lineup should be a little nerve-racking for the rookie.

The Jays’ offense hung seven runs last night and got back to its scoring ways. The total closed at 9 last night with Hyun Jin Ryu and Zach Plesac on the mound and we’re getting a 10 with these two struggling starters. This total seems at least a half-run too low and we were fully expecting to see an 11 Wednesday morning.

PREDICTION: Over 10 (-105)

Indians vs Blue Jays betting card

  • Toronto -1.5 (-117)
  • Over 10 (-105)

Picks made on 8/4/2021 at 5:04 a.m. ET

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