The MLB season is upon us and with it all the MLB betting markets that we’ve come to love/hate. Along with sides and totals, there is a diverse and increasingly popular prop market to baseball that includes first-five inning wagers, player, game and team props. All of these choices make wagering in baseball this year a unique and hopefully more enjoyable experience.
This article will try to find some of MLB’s best bets and bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Sunday, April 4, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Arizona vs. San Diego F5 Over 5 (+100)
With the popularity of first five-inning markets, it allows bettors to focus on the starting pitcher matchup and exclude most things related to the bullpen. Looking at the Diamondbacks vs. Padres matchup, we’ve zeroed in on our favorite F5 Over to fade a pair of starting hurlers.
Taylor Widener will take the ball for the Dbacks on Sunday. Widener is a fly-ball pitcher who is just making a spot start for the injured Zac Gallen. He gave up four home runs in 16 innings this spring and has also surrendered five long balls over his 20 career MLB innings of work. The stout lineup of the Padres could be loading up on Sunday afternoon and we won’t blame them for trying to pad their stats.
Opposing Widener is another below-average starter in Chris Paddack. The right-hander is coming off a season that saw him post one of the league’s worst FIPs at 5.02 and the fourth-worst HR/9 of pitchers who had at least 50 innings pitched.
The Padres offense knows it will have to support Paddack, who finished 2020 with a 5.17 xERA, so we’ll be looking for the Friars to be even more aggressive at the plate and on the bases.
Both clubs did most of their damage in the early frames in the series’ first two games and we’re expecting both offenses to get to the starters right out of the gates.
Jump on the first-five bandwagon and fade a pair of starters.
St. Louis vs. Cincinnati Over 9.5 (-115)
The Cardinals and Reds opened up their seasons with a 17-run slugfest at the Great American Ball Park that saw a total of four home runs. The Reds’ home park had the biggest home run factor in the league in 2020 at 2.140 per ESPN. That could spell bad news for Sunday’s starters Carlos Martinez and Jeff Hoffman.
Martinez has started just five games since 2018 and his fastball is reportedly slowing down. Once averaging 95 mph on his heater, the right-hander has been sitting in the low-90s this spring. He also gave up 20 hits (one HR) and walked another 11 in 20 innings in the tune-up games. Martinez only pitched 20 innings last year but still managed to give up six four-baggers in five starts.
Hoffman will be making his first start for the Reds after coming over from Colorado. The former first-rounder made zero starts a season ago and is filling in for some injured Cincinnati starters.
Hoffman was rocked for four runs in 0.2 innings of work in his most recent spring start. He also has a knack for giving up the long ball with a career mark of 1.8 HR/9.
The wind was blowing hard out to the left field on Saturday and runs were coming in early and often. We’re hoping for some more help from mother nature on Sunday as this is our favorite Over play of the day.
Yesterday's MLB record: 1-3 (-2.24 units)
Season MLB betting record: 3-7, -4.68 units
MLB betting card for April 4
- Arizona vs San Diego F5 Over 5 (+100)
- St. Louis vs Cincinnati Over 9.5 (-115)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB prop picks, you could win $27.39 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.