Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Gallen Delivers for D-backs

Although the NBA and NHL seasons are winding down, there are still plenty of betting options if you look at the MLB board — especially with player prop odds. Today I'm backing two of the hottest pitchers in the majors while also looking at an angle for last year's World Series MVP. 

While all three of these props are juiced toward the side I'm betting on, there's still value in playing them in these favorable matchups. Here are my best free MLB player prop picks for Saturday, May 13.

MLB props for May 13

• McClanahan Over 17.5 outs
• Gallen Over 6.5 strikeouts
• Pena Under 1.5 strikeouts

Picks made on 5/13/2023 at 9 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Ray of Light

The first game on the diamond today is a noon clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. The Rays are sending AL Cy Young odds contender Shane McClanahan and his 1.76 ERA to the mound. 

Anytime you're looking at the player props for a dominant player, it's tough to find an edge on the books. However, there is one prop that looks ripe for the picking today: the Over 17.5 outs for McClanahan. The star right-hander is usually given six full innings before being relieved, staying for 18 outs in six of eight games this season.

Of course, if he gets touched up (or hurt) he could get the hook early but that doesn't look too likely against the Yankees. The Yankees are just 23rd in the majors with a batting average of .234 with that number dipping to .225 against southpaws like McClanahan. 

This is the first time McLanahan is facing the Yankees this season, but he had three games against them last year and pitched to a 1.50 ERA with an OBA of .212 across 18 innings. The Yankees lineup is even less dangerous this year with Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Staton injured, and Aaron Judge taking a step back after a record-breaking campaign.

Shane McClanahan Prop: Over 17.5 outs (-133)

Throw Some D's

Another pitcher that has been dealing this year is Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen, who faces the Giants tonight.

The 27-year-old is 5-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP through eight starts. Gallen doesn't have overpowering velocity, but he has excellent command of four pitches and throws them with plenty of movement. 

San Francisco's lineup has a decent amount of pop, but struggles with making contact. Although the Giants fanned just 19 times over the last four games, they still rank second-last in the majors in strikeout rate (25.4%). 

The Over/Under on Gallen's strikeouts total today is set at 6.5. He has eclipsed that number in five of his last six starts and has racked up 54 punchouts in 39 innings over that span. With Gallen fifth in the majors with 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings, take the Over 6.5 on his strikeouts. 

Zac Gallen Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-145)

Astro Pop

Jeremy Pena has struck out more than any other Astros batter, but the O/U of 1.5 on his strikeouts today still seems too high. Last season's World Series hero has a total of just one strikeout in his last four games and hasn't fanned more than once in any of his previous eight contests. 

Today, Pena will face the White Sox and starter Dylan Cease, who has regressed after a terrific 2022 campaign. Cease's strikeout rate was over 30% in each of the last two seasons but has dropped to 25.9% and because he's been getting lit up he hasn't pitched deep into games either. 

The Under 1.5 strikeouts for Pena is juiced to -195 for an implied probability of 66.1%. Given that he has gone below that number in 30 of 38 games this year (78.9%) there's still value on the Under. 

Jeremy Pena Prop: Under 1.5 strikeouts (-195 at DraftKings)

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