Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bellinger Keeps Rolling Along

Prop bet #1: Quite the Flexen

To say 2023 has been a struggle for Chris Flexen would be an understatement. 

The right-hander had spent the majority of the season as the Seattle Mariners’ long reliever, mostly coming in for mop-up duty. And even those low-leverage situations did not go well. Flexen posted a 7.71 ERA and getting tagged for a .940 opponent OPS.

And you know what the Colorado Rockies said? “That sounds like a starting pitcher to us.”

Flexen’s first two starts for the Rockies have gone predictably poorly. He has allowed nine runs (eight earned) on 14 hits and six walks over 8 2/3 innings in matchups against the Oakland A’s and the St. Louis Cardinals.

Overall, he is now pitching to a 6.97 expected ERA while surrendering a .314 expected batting average and a .523 expected slugging percentage. Those numbers all rank in the Bottom 1% in baseball. But since the Rockies are just trying to run out the clock on the season, he gets the ball this afternoon against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Now, the Brew Crew aren’t exactly world-beaters at the plate but they’ve seen a little improvement in the second half, ranking 19th in batting average and 17th in scoring at 4.38 runs per game. And honestly, that’s good enough for what Flexen is throwing out there these days. I mean, the A’s tagged him for five earned runs — including two dingers — in just 3 2/3 innings.

I’m betting on another rough day for Flexen and taking the Over on his earned runs allowed prop.

Chris Flexen prop: Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-140 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Riding the Bellinger wave

It feels like Cody Bellinger can’t and won’t be stopped at this point. The Chicago Cubs outfielder continues to mash the baseball after hitting a home run in the Cubbies’ 3-2 victory over the New York Mets last night.

Bellinger, whose comeback is one of the best stories in baseball, is on a 10-game hitting streak where he owns a .447 batting average and a 1.172 OPS. And the baseball must look like the size of a melon since coming out of the All-Star break as he's hitting .406 with a 1.152 OPS in the second half.

So, why is a guy this locked in getting +140 to go Over his total bases tonight? Well, my guess is that it's because the Mets are handing the ball to left-handed pitcher David Peterson. But I’m going to let you in on a little secret. Bellinger has better splits vs. lefties.

Belli is hitting a ridiculous .355 with a 1.043 OPS off southpaws and it’s not like Peterson has been an elite starter in 2023.

In fact, his year is very emblematic of the Mets' season overall. Disappointment mixed with injuries. Peterson was pitching so poorly he got moved to a long relief role. But with the Mets trading Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the team needed starters.

This will be just his second start since returning to the rotation. Overall, he is pitching to a 4.87 expected ERA while giving up a .267 expected batting average, ranking in the 16th percentile among MLB pitchers.

Peterson will also likely only throw between three and five innings, which means plenty of work for a bullpen that ranks 25th in xFIP.

Bellinger has gone Over 1.5 total bases a ridiculous 17 times in 25 games since coming out of the break and the last five in a row overall. At this price, we’re not stopping now.

Cody Bellinger prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140)

Prop bet #3: Kelly can't get out of dodge

Remember when the Arizona Diamondbacks were leading the National League West? Yeah, neither do the Los Angeles Dodgers.

L.A. enters tonight’s matchup against the D-Backs holding a 10-game lead over them with Arizona picking a really bad time for a seven-game losing streak.

And I’m not sure if things improve as they’ll hand the ball to Merrill Kelly. The D-Backs will need to improve their rotation if they want to be considered a serious contender over the next couple of seasons because you are just not going to have sustained success with Kelly as your second-best starter.

Now, don’t let Kelly’s 3.21 ERA fool you because he has not pitched that well. The right-hander owns an expected ERA more than a run higher at 4.35 and ranks below league average in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and hard-hit percentage.

Simply put, he’s getting hit hard and often, but teams just aren’t cashing in runs against him. That shouldn’t be a problem for the Dodgers.

Led by superstars Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, the Dodgers rank 10th in batting average, third in OPS, and fourth in OPS when facing right-handed pitching this season. 

We have started to see that regression from Kelly lately. He has given up 13 runs (11 earned) on 27 hits over his last four starts. And the Dodgers have always given him problems, tagging him for a 5.45 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP over 14 career starts. 

That should mean a shorter outing tonight for Kelly. His outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5. He’s fallen below that number in two of his last four starts and in both prior meetings vs. the Dodgers this season. At plus money it’s worth a wager that he goes Under that number once again tonight.

Merrill Kelly prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+110 at DraftKings)