It's the best day of the week for baseball. Tuesday.
We've got a full slate loaded with opportunities to cash in on some of the league’s best hitters to do damage at the plate.
My MLB player props for Tuesday, June 9, are eyeing Julio Rodriguez, Ian Happ, and Shohei Ohtani.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Julio Rodriguez |
Over 1.5 total bases | -110 |
 Ian Happ |
Over 1.5 total bases | -124 |
 Shohei Ohtani |
Over 1.5 total bases | +111 |
Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 total bases (-110)
First game of the day, the Seattle Mariners take on the Baltimore Orioles, and we're hyper-focused on Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez as we back the over on his total bases prop this evening.
The young star has been terrorizing southpaws this season, posting a 173 wRC+, .987 OPS, 50% hard-hit rate, and a 12.5% barrel rate. Over his last 30 plate appearances against lefties, he's making 60% hard contact while batting .286 with a .571 SLG and .904 OPS.
Today marks Rodriguez's 52nd elite rating on Batters-Box. In his previous 51 elite ratings, he's gone Over this prop 45% of the time and has left the yard in 21% of those contests. He's also gone Over 1.5 total bases in seven of his last 10 elite-rated games.
The young slugger draws Trevor Rogers this evening, a pitcher against whom he owns an 80.2% arsenal coverage rating.
The lefty has allowed right-handed hitters to do just about whatever they want this season, surrendering 42.4% hard contact at home. Over the last 60 right-handed batters he's faced, opponents have posted a .320 xBA, .514 xSLG, and .340 xwOBA. During that same stretch, Rogers has allowed 45.8% hard contact, an 8.3% barrel rate, and a massive 68.8% elevation rate.
Anything below -120 for this prop is a go in my book. Don't want to lay the juice? Take his home run prop or a double prop for a little more value.
- Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, SEAM
Ian Happ Over 1.5 total bases (-124)
My shirt is covered in drool because these numbers for Chicago Cubs switch-hitter Ian Happ to go over his total bases prop tonight at Coors Field are absolutely delectable.
The longtime Cub has been tearing the cover off the ball lately, batting .414 with a 1.034 SLG and 1.467 OPS over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitchers. During that stretch, he's generated 59.1% hard contact and a 13.6% barrel rate.
Happ draws seasoned Colorado Rockies sophomore Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box's current season rankings. The veteran Japanese right-hander is allowing 50.71% hard contact to opposing hitters while carrying just a 13.33% strikeout rate.
Left-handed bats have absolutely torched him recently. Over the last 60 lefties he's faced, opponents have posted a 49% hard-contact rate, 25.5% barrel rate, and 72.6% elevation rate. Those hitters have also produced a ridiculous .429 xBA, .977 xSLG, and .548 xwOBA during that span.
With this game at Coors Field, Happ carrying 78.7% arsenal coverage, and Sugano getting shelled, I have to be all over Mr. Happ's total bases tonight. If this number climbs, I'd pivot to his double and home run props instead.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee, COLR
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+111)
We are really here for the value. Getting Shohei Ohtani to go Over 1.5 bases at +111 is a gift. I do not care if Jesus Christ in his prime is on the mound; Ohtani always has a chance.
The Los Angeles Dodgers star draws an elite rating matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes Over on Batters-Box, and the underlying trends are mouthwatering. In 129 elite-rated games on the road, Ohtani has recorded:
- 1+ Hit: 75.19%
- 2+ Hits: 34.11%
- 2+ Bases: 58.91%
- 2+ Hits, runs, RBI: 62.02%
- Home run: 27.91%
He has cleared 2+ bases in eight of his last 10 elite-rated road spots.
If you want to pay the -125 price on his hits + runs + RBI prop, I fully endorse that as well. The trend is your friend there.
Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Ohtani is hitting .423 with a .645 slugging percentage and a 1.154 OPS, while generating 63.2% hard contact. He also has a 73.7% arsenal coverage rate against Skenes’ pitch mix.
Even if Skenes has success early, once Pittsburgh goes to the bullpen, Ohtani is still in a strong position to do damage. The Pirates bullpen allows the highest hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters at home, and is also allowing an 82.8% elevation rate.
At +111, this feels like a steal. Even if it does not always hit, the price itself is the win. I would take this down to +100.
Do not forget to sprinkle on the home run as well; it's hovering around 4/1.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNP, SNLA
- Prop picks: 197-345-29, +1.30 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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