When betting on MLB player props, one area that often gets overlooked is the markets for walks. That's where an abundance of value lies, and my two favorite MLB picks for today focus on the shaky control of Gavin Williams and the rising walk rate of William Contreras.
Find out why I'm also backing Yankees slugger Juan Soto with my best free MLB props for Thursday, September 12.
MLB props for September 12
- Williams Over 1.5 walks (-110 at DraftKings)
- Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
- Contreras Over 0.5 walks (+130 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Gavin Williams Over 1.5 walks
Cleveland Guardians hurler Gavin Willliams has really struggled lately, pitching to a 6.68 ERA in seven starts since the beginning of August. He's also coming off an ugly outing against the Dodgers, where he was pulled in the first inning after surrendering five runs.
Despite throwing just 37 pitches in that contest, Williams walked three batters. The right-hander ranks the bottom 25th percentile in walk rate (9.8%), and he has walked 2+ batters in five-straight starts and nine of his last 11 outings overall.
Today he faces a struggling Tampa Bay Rays lineup that boasts the eighth-highest walk rate (8.5%). Their poor production at the plate should ensure that Williams sticks around long enough to issue more than 1.5 free passes.
Prop bet #2: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Juan Soto has been lights out in his first season with the New York Yankees, slashing .289/.418/.580 and ranking sixth in the majors with 305 total bases in 142 games. His advanced stats at Baseball Savant are even more elite, with his expected slugging percentage sitting at an incredible .668, while his barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate are in the Top 1%.
Tonight, Soto and the Yankees host the Boston Red Sox and righty Cooper Criswell, who holds a 4.11 ERA with a .274 opponent batting average across 92 innings this season. Soto will have the platoon advantage against him and is likely to maintain it throughout the game, given that Boston’s struggling bullpen (6.11 ERA since July) features just one left-handed reliever.
This is a five-star prop play according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 2.1 total bases for Soto today.
Prop bet #3: William Contreras Over 0.5 walks
William Contreras is one of the best hitting catchers in the majors, slashing .281/.360/.466 with 91 runs and 84 RBIs through 141 games. The 2023 Silver Slugger winner has a below-average walk rate of 10.6%, but he's still second on the Milwaukee Brewers with 66 walks. Over the last two months, Contreras has posted 32 walks in 51 games, with his BB rate surging to 14.7%.
San Francisco Giants rookie hurler Hayden Birdsong has pitched to an ugly 5.19 ERA across 12 starts, with a horrendous BB rate of 15% being the third-highest among all pitchers who have faced at least 200 batters.
In six starts since the beginning of August, Birdsong has walked a whopping 19 batters across just 21 2/3 innings. With Birdsong on the mound, bet on Contreras to pick up a walk at plus money.
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Today’s MLB games
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