Thursday may be a smaller slate, but there are still plenty of spots to attack.
I found a couple of pitchers I'm looking to fade, along with a red-hot bat in a prime spot to inflict some damage.
Let's dive right into my three favorite MLB player props for July 30.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Rhett Lowder |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -124 |
 Jake Irvin |
Over 2.5 earned runs | +106 |
 Ryan O'Hearn |
Over 1.5 total bases | +114 |
Rhett Lowder Over 2.5 earned runs (-124)
Sadly, yes, we’ll be fading your mother’s favorite country singer and Cincinnati Reds starter, Rhett Lowder, this evening.
The right-hander enters Thursday with the third-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season dataset. He also draws a difficult matchup against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup featuring three elite-rated hitters and two more with strong ratings. To make matters worse, Lowder has the worst matchup wOBA on the slate and the fifth-lowest projected strikeout rate.
His recent form has not helped either. Over his last three starts, Lowder carries a 9.64 ERA and 1.71 WHIP while allowing a 47% hard hit rate and 9.38% barrel rate.
The Pirates already rank third in first five-inning scoring, making this a great spot for them to jump on Lowder early.
Playable to -130.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, SNP
Jake Irvin Over 2.5 earned runs (+106)
The worst-rated pitcher on today's Batters-Box slate is Washington Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin, and it is not hard to see why.
Irvin draws four elite-rated Atlanta Braves hitters and another with a strong rating. Over his last three starts, the Nats starter has recorded a 4.50 ERA while allowing a 46.43% hard hit rate and 10.7% barrel rate.
Atlanta's offense has been rolling lately, posting a 126 wRC+, .352 wOBA, and .802 OPS over its last 12 games. The Braves also boast the highest-rated offense on today’s Batters-Box slate, with an average hitter rating of 0.43 — just shy of elite.
I would do everything I can to avoid laying juice on this prop. Shop around and grab the best number available.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 total bases (+114)
One of the hottest bats in Pittsburgh over the last few weeks has been Ryan O'Hearn. Across his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, O'Hearn owns a .288 batting average, .519 slugging percentage, and .884 OPS, while producing a 51.3% hard hit rate and 12.8% barrel rate.
Entering Thursday, O'Hearn covers nearly 100% of Rhett Lowder's pitch mix and carries an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset.
Lowder has been getting torched by left-handed hitters this season. Across his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, O’Hearn owns a .288 batting average, .519 slugging percentage, and .884 OPS, while posting a 51.3% hard-hit rate and 12.8% barrel rate.
If Lowder gets lit up tonight, expect O'Hearn to lead the charge. I would play this down to +105.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, SNP
- Prop picks: 349-682, -15.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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