No scaries, just fun! There's so much to get into with the MLB player props market today.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 13, including why Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to light up Bubba Chandler.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Aaron Judge |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -117 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | -117 |
 Abimelec Ortiz |
Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI | +108 |
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-117)
It's a very rare day when you're able to snag New York Yankees captain Aaron Judge’s hits, runs, and RBI prop below -120. The NFL must be back in season, or something.
Through 373 elite ratings over the last three seasons, the big fella has surpassed this prop over 57% of the time. He goes over 2.5 nearly 46% of the time and is leaving the yard almost 30% of the time during that stretch, per Batters-Box.
Judge draws New York Mets right-hander Christian Scott, who's been struggling against right-handed hitters on the road this season. Scott is allowing right-handed hitters to bat .294, with a .412 SLG and .366 wOBA. Those hitters are also generating a hard-hit rate over 32% and an elevation rate of 71.1%.
The captain has recorded three hits through his first four games back from injury, but no extra-base hits. He's been generating a ton of hard-hit balls, so maybe Judge can take one deep against Scott.
I snagged this at -103. Take this down to -120 at the most.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, SNY
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (-117)
Yet another scrumdiddlyumptious price tag on a superstar to go over his hits, runs, and RBI prop this afternoon.
Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong finds himself in a great spot against Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Bubba Chandler.
Crow-Armstrong has been on another planet all season. But he's been outstanding in his last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher, posting a .320 BA, .720 SLG, and 1.120 OPS while generating a hard-hit rate of nearly 58% and a 21.1% barrel rate. He's also put up a .591 xSLG and .263 ISO while producing a 53.6% hard-hit rate and 14.35% barrel rate across his last 10 contests.
Meanwhile, Chandler has been struggling against left-handed hitters. Against his last 60 lefties they own a .300 xBA, .487 xSLG, and .284 ISO while elevating the ball at a 71.1% clip.
I was able to get this prop at around -108. I would take it down to -120, but if you want plus money, his total bases are hovering around +130.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, SNP
Abimelec Ortiz Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBI (+108)
It was nice to see Los Angeles Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez find his footing for a few starts. Now he's back to his old ways, owning a 5.74 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over the hurler's last three outings.
Where Rodriguez has really struggled is against left-handed hitters. In his last three starts, lefties are generating a hard-hit rate above 52% and a 10.5% barrel rate, while also posting a 68.4% elevation rate.
This afternoon, Washington Nationals first baseman Abimelec Ortiz stood out the most as a hitter to back against the Angels' right-hander. Ortiz enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he covers nearly 85% of Rodriguez's arsenal.
Over his last 10 games, the youngster has been maintaining a .719 SLG and .407 ISO, while making over 50% hard contact and posting a 16% barrel rate. Five of his last 10 batted balls have been crushed above 101.6 mph. He's in a great spot against a mainly fastball pitcher.
Do not pay juice for this prop. SHOP!
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, ABTV
- Prop picks: 492-966, +3.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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