With all the eyes on the NFL today, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better day to bet MLB player props, and especially dingers, than today.
Shea Langeliers is back, and his price is too long for a Bryce Miller matchup at Sutter Health. Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh gives Jacob Lopez nightmares, and CJ Abrams is looking to put a stamp on a great homer season.
These are my favorite home run props for Sunday, Sept. 13.
MLB home run props for today
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| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Shea Langeliers |
23.9% |
 Cal Raleigh |
27.2% |
 CJ Abrams |
20.4% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 61x |
Home run prediction: Shea Langeliers (23.9%)
Shea Langeliers is back in the Athletics' lineup, and at around 24% today, it's a great spot to back him to go yard with a fair probability of 28.6%.
It's a Sutter Health Park game, which is always good for the taters. It's no surprise it's the best park today for home runs by a wide margin, per Ball Park Pal. At home, Langeliers slugs 100 points better than he does on the road.
The next green check is the pitching matchup. Bryce Miller has the worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and is not in great form.
In the second half of this year, he owns the 13th-worst HR/9 among MLB starters and the 28th-worst HR/FB rate. Miller hasn't gotten to 15 outs in four straight starts. Langeliers has also taken Miller deep three times in 12 meetings.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-California, Mariners.TV
Home run prediction: Cal Raleigh (27.2%)
It's not every day you get the most probable home run on the board at a +EV price, but that's what's happening today with Cal Raleigh at a fair probability of 33%. I think we can thank the NFL slate for this sneaky price.
It's the best setting in baseball for dingers today, and Raleigh is making up for lost time with nine home runs over the last 30 days and a Top 20 slugging percentage of .628. He's also owned Jacob Lopez, with three home runs in five plate appearances.
Do you hear that? That's the sound of Lopez's knees knocking together at the thought of facing Raleigh today.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-California, Mariners.TV
Home run prediction: CJ Abrams (20.4%)
It's not a bad day for dingers in Washington with Grayson Rodriguez on the bump. He has the third-worst HR/9 over the last two seasons among all starters today and has given up multiple homers in back-to-back starts. It's a big-total game that could see the Nats' healthy offense stack some runs.
The best value on the home side is CJ Abrams at 20.4%, with a fair probability of 23.5%. He's slugging .461 in the second half and leads the team with 10 dingers.
He got over the toughest one to get, his 30th, and is looking to finish a breakout season with a great home-run matchup at home this afternoon. James Wood and CJ Abrams should not be four percentage points apart in home-run pricing.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, ABTV
- HR picks: 38-181, -5.46 units
Best home run combo for Sept. 13
| Shea Langeliers |
Trade Now 61x |
| Cal Raleigh |
|
| CJ Abrams |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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