A fresh week is in front of us as we look to back a few players and fade another on this nearly full Monday slate.
Here are my three favorite MLB player props for July 27.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Max Scherzer |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -114 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Over 1.5 total bases | -111 |
| Seiya Suzuki |
Over 1.5 total bases | -109 |
Max Scherzer Over 2.5 earned runs (-114)
I'm fading old man Max Scherzer this evening in my MLB picks as he draws one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball.
The Toronto Blue Jays veteran righty owns the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box for today's slate and will face a lineup featuring three elite-rated hitters and one additional strong-rated bat.
The Washington Nationals have been on an absolute tear over their last 21 games, posting a 151 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .244 ISO, and .889 OPS.
Meanwhile, Scherzer has looked nothing like himself over his last five starts, posting a 13.50 ERA, 5.82 xERA, and 2.06 WHIP.
As difficult as it is to fade a future Hall of Famer, this is the spot to do it. The Nationals lead all of baseball in first five-inning scoring, averaging 3.13 runs over that span.
I'd play this prop down to -125.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, Sportnet
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (-111)
It is a great day to fade St. Louis Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore. The southpaw enters Monday with the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box, where he grades poorly in matchup ISO, wOBA, hard contact, and ground ball rate.
Two Chicago Cubs stood out to me in this matchup, starting with leadoff hitter Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is coming off a strong performance on Sunday. He also carries an elite rating tonight while covering nearly 100% of Liberatore's arsenal.
Over his last 60 at-bats against southpaws, Crow-Armstrong owns a .543 SLG, .993 OPS, .434 wOBA, and .260 ISO.
Liberatore has also struggled against left-handed hitters, especially at home, where they are batting .321 with a .509 SLG and .357 wOBA against him.
With temperatures expected to climb into the triple digits tonight, the conditions should heavily favor the hitters. I think there will be plenty of offense, with the ball carrying well in St. Louis.
I'd play this to -125.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, CARD
Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 total bases (-109)
The other bat I want to back in this matchup is Seiya Suzuki, who has been crushing left-handed pitching all season.
Over his last 60 at-bats against southpaws, the Cubs slugger owns a 46.1% hard hit rate, 12.8% barrel rate, and 74.4% elevation rate. He has also posted a 26.3% HR/FB rate, .680 SLG, and 1.097 OPS.
Against right-handed hitters, Liberatore has allowed a 42.5% hard hit rate and 72.5% elevation rate over the last 60 hitters he has faced. Those righties have also produced a .337 xBA, .501 xSLG, and .417 xwOBA during that span.
With the heat expected in St. Louis and the way both Suzuki and PCA have been swinging the bat, I think at least one of them has a big night at the plate.
I'd play this down to -125 as well.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MARQ, CARD
- Prop picks: 341-656, -9.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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