Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Tatis Jr. Keeps the Hits Coming

Baseballs have looked like beach balls for Fernando Tatis Jr. over the last 17 games, and his total bases prop highlights our MLB prop picks for tonight.

Andrew Caley - Senior Betting Analyst at
Andrew Caley • Senior Betting Analyst
Jun 12, 2024 • 13:33 ET • 4 min read
Fernando Tatis Jr. San Diego Padres MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

With all 30 teams in action, it feels like the bases are juiced when it comes to MLB player props, and I’m here to drive in some winners.

I've got to start by talking about Fernando Tatis Jr., who has entered “God Mode” and will try to extend his hitting streak to 18 games when the San Diego Padres host the Oakland A’s.

Meanwhile, Bryce Harper could be hitting nukes at Fenway Park tonight when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Boston Red Sox. Here are my MLB picks for Wednesday, June 12.

MLB props for June 12

Picks made on 6-12 at 1:00 p.m. ET.

Best MLB bets today

Prop bet #1: Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases

I’m guessing Fernando Tatis Jr.’s favorite John Wick quote is, “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back.”

The San Diego Padres outfielder once again looks like the guy who was being promoted as the next face of Major League Baseball just a few years ago before injuries and a PED suspension put an end to that. I wouldn’t be too worried about that now.

In a league full of guys tearing the cover off the baseball, Tatis might be the most locked-in of them all. The 25-year-old outfielder is in the middle of a 17-game hitting streak where he has a .400 batting average, a 1.133 OPS with 10 extra-base hits, including five home runs.

That has made him a total bases monster. Tatis has gone Over 1.5 total bases in nine consecutive ball games and 12 times during this current hitting streak. This afternoon, he’ll dig in against LHP Hogan Harris as the Pads try to complete the sweep of the Oakland A’s.

The 27-year-old Harris has spent most of his career in the minors, but he’s been mostly effective when called up by the A’s, pitching to a 2.21 ERA over 20 1/3 innings pitched. However, his expected ERA is 4.58, and his expected opponent batting average is .257 — both well below the league average.

It seems crazy we're still getting plus money on Fernando Tatis Jr's odds to hit the Over on his total bases, and it doesn’t hurt that Covers prop projections have Tatis at 2.2 total bases for this one.

Fernando Tatis Jr. prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Harper Over 0.5 RBI

The Philadelphia Phillies enter tonight’s matchup with the Boston Red Sox with a 46-20 record, and their +111 run differential is tops in the National League. One of the deepest lineups in baseball has been a big part of that, and that lineup is, of course, led by Bryce Harper.

It’s kind of funny the two-time MVP now gets overlooked \when people talk about the best players in baseball, but Bryce is still here doing his thing, and that thing is producing runs. Harper is hitting .278 with a .919 OPS, 15 home runs, and 45 RBI. He’s also off to an excellent start in June, hitting .333 with a 1.078 OPS over his last eight games. 

Tonight, he’ll dig in against Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, and these two have had some serious battles. Harper is 3-for-11 in his career vs. Pivetta with five strikeouts, but those three hits are a double and two HR. 

That’s kind of been the theme for Pivetta this season as well. He’s put up some really good numbers, but when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. The RHP ranks in the 27th percentile in opponent expected slugging (.433) and in the 11th percentile in barrel rate.

Pivetta is also a fly-ball pitcher, which shouldn’t play well against Harper’s power in a place like Fenway Park. There is some value in Bryce Harper's odds to drive in another run tonight. In fact, our Covers prop projections have it as a five-star play.

Bryce Harper prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+180 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Gray Under 4.5 hits allowed

Sonny Gray has been one of baseball’s most consistent and reliable starters over the years and has quietly gone about his business in his first season with the St. Louis Cardinals. He should keep that going when he takes the ball against the poor old Pittsburgh Pirates.

The RHP is pitching to a 3.18 expected ERA and limiting opponents to a .219 expected batting average. Those rank in the 77th and 76th percentiles among MLB pitchers. He’s also striking out batters at the highest rate of his career, punching out 32.8% of batters faced (Top 10% of the league).

So, overpowering the Pirates shouldn’t be much of a problem, as right handers have really given them issues. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in batting average, 29th in OPS, 28th in wRC+, and has the fifth-highest K-rate when facing righties this season.

Gray’s hits allowed prop is sitting at 4.5 for this matchup, a number he’s stayed below in six of his 11 starts this season. But there’s more to like about this bet. Gray has never been a high pitch count guy over the course of his career, and that hasn’t changed in St. Louis where he's averaging about 84 pitches and 23 batters faced per start. 

That means fewer opportunities for opponents to rack up hits, and when the opponent is the blundering Buccos, you love the Under for these Sonny Gray odds.

Sonny Gray prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (-119 at Caesars)

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