Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Chisholm Provides Run Support for Miami

Prop bet #1: Missing Bello's Balls

The A’s are bad. It’s still the first week of baseball and players are already showing a lack of interest in playing for a bush-league organization. That’s great news for the Boston Red Sox and starting pitcher Brayan Bello's odds. 

THE BAT is projecting a healthy 6.41 strikeouts from the Boston starter today over 17.9 total outs vs. this bad lineup. Through five games, the A’s are striking out at 29.3% which is the fourth-highest rate to begin the season. Bello isn’t the highest K% pitcher on the slate today, but the projected leash helps and getting a K/inning vs. this lineup should be the floor for most starting pitchers.

After an 84-pitch opening-day outing for Bello, that number should rise to 90+ tonight. With many books sitting as short as -137, this price should have decent CLV.

Tanner Houck whiffed 10 Oakland batters yesterday over six innings and needed just 83 pitches to do so. Houck is also a sub-K/inning pitcher. 

Brayan Bello prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-117 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Jazz hands

RBI markets are some of my favorite offensive player props to bet Overs on. There are always a handful of middle-of-the-order hitters with prices above the +150 mark and some steals between +190 and +215. That’s the case today with Jazz Chisholm's odds.

The No. 4 hitter is paying +195 to knock in a run today vs. Tyler Anderson and the Angels who have a 6.62 ERA on the early season. Chisholm has five RBI over his last two games and has some great table-setters in front of him in Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, and Jake Burger. 

This prop was +215 this morning but still shows value at the +195 price with other books as short as +170. No clean-up hitter should be longer than +150 for an RBI and certainly not one as dynamic as Chisholm and certainly not one in a matchup as good as this. 

Considering the batter in front of him is +130 for an RBI, Jazz at +195 is a steal at this price in terms of value.  

Jazz Chisholm prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+195 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Swing-an-miss Twins

Let’s get some early action today in the Milwaukee Brewers’ home opener by targeting the high strikeout rate of the visiting Minnesota Twins.

The Twins led all of baseball with a 26.6% K% last year and are on their way to a similar mark with a 25.6% rate to begin the season. This is a great spot to target Jakob Junis' odds.

The right hander is coming off a career-best 26.2% K rate last year and should be penciled in this year to strike out at least a batter per frame. This will be his first start of the season and he did skip his last Spring start with a shoulder issue, but even at five innings, this projects well. If he was stretched out and had zero concerns, this would be a great ladder spot. 

THE BAT is projecting 5.45 punchouts on just 14.7 outs and 81 pitches. That is a conservative projection and it’s always nice to know the floor is showing Over value.

Three Ks each time through the order is one way to look at the paths to the Over. Junis should be better than a K/inning pitcher this year.      

Jakob Junis prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at BetMGM)