Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Back Wells in Pitcher-Friendly Matchup

Prop bet #1: Back to the Wells

Tyler Wells threw just 87 pitches in his last start and allowed nine base runners, yet the Baltimore Orioles starter still recorded 16 outs. The right-hander has cashed Over 15.5 outs in both of his starts despite a low pitch count, which should increase today when facing the Milwaukee Brewers in a pitcher-friendly environment.

The books are giving out +108 odds on the Over 15.5 and Covers’ MLB player prop projections have him at 16.54 total outs, with THE BAT projecting 90 pitches.

Milwaukee continues to strike out a lot, which should keep fewer balls in play and out of the wind. Baltimore has a stingy pen but used five arms yesterday, allowing Wells to have a long leash this evening. At plus money, I’m betting he begins the year 3-0 to the Over on this prop. 

Tyler Wells prop: Over 15.5 outs (+108 at BetRivers)

Prop bet #2: Fading Pablo

We took Pablo Reyes to go Under 0.5 hits at +195 this morning on THE BAT X release show, but for some reason, this number is still available at lunchtime for the Boston Red Sox utility man. 

Reyes was +200 on Wednesday to go hitless vs. a lefty and had just two plate appearances before he was pulled from the game. One of those at-bats was a sac-bunt attempt that turned into a backward K. This is already a bad hitter to begin with. He has just three hits over 23 PAs and THE BAT has him at 72% pinch-hit risk, which is the biggest rate I’ve ever seen.

Reyes will face Los Angeles Angels lefty Reid Detmers, who is coming off a 12-strikeout performance against Boston last weekend. The infielder has gone hitless in his last three starts and has been pulled in two of them. There are a lot of outs for this +195 prop to hit. 

Pablo Reyes prop: Under 0.5 hits (+195 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: The frail Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays offense is laughable. Their 3.62 runs per game rank 24th in baseball, they’ve scored two or fewer runs in half of their last 10 games, and they’re currently one of six teams averaging under seven hits per game.

The bottom of the order is doing nothing, there isn’t much from the bench, and none of their Top-3 batters are hitting over .205. This is an offense to target for Unders right now, and that’s exactly what I’m doing.

The Jays welcome the Colorado Rockies to town tonight, and starting pitcher Ryan Feltner’s Under 2.5 earned runs at +110 is a great play.

All Colorado pitcher stats are skewed because of Coors Field, and the Jays might be underprepared for the right-hander today. Feltner struck out 10 in his last outing in Colorado, holding the Rays to just two hits and one run at altitude. The right-hander has allowed just seven hits over 11 innings while compiling a 14:4 K:BB rate.

Ryan Feltner is the third pitcher in franchise history to pitch six innings and allow two or fewer hits with 10+ strikeouts in a start at Coors Field. pic.twitter.com/KwuEMQ29fn

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) April 7, 2024

Feltner doesn’t have the longest leash — mid-90s max today for a pitch count — but that is great if he can be efficient and short. THE BAT has this a little better than a coinflip, but the plus odds make for solid +EV play vs. an offense that might be making changes shortly.

Ryan Feltner prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (+110 at bet365)