It may be Friday the 13th, but there is nothing unlucky about these MLB player props.
Today, I focus on a trio of overlooked and underappreciated players who are tearing the seams off the baseball right now.
Check out my favorite angles for Friday, June 13, below.
Best MLB player props today
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Kirk o1.5 TBs (+135) -
Adell o0.5 RBI (+220) -
Ramirez o1.5 TBs (+130)
MLB props for June 13
Alejandro Kirk Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135 at bet365)
Is there a hotter hitter in baseball than Alejandro Kirk? The Toronto Blue Jays catcher has been a big reason why the team has won 12 of its last 14 games. And even though he gets a tough matchup tonight against Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez, I’m not betting that he cools off just yet.
Kirk is absolutely locked in at the dish and looks like the guy who earned an All-Star selection back in 2022. The Jays’ catcher has been solid with the bat all season, but he’s taken it to another level lately, hitting .467 with a 1.189 OPS over his last 11 games. That includes four doubles, two dingers, and 12 RBIs.
His current hot streak now has him in the 97th percentile for expected batting average for the season. And these are cheapies. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in average exit velocity and the 97th percentile in hard-hit percentage.
Now, on paper, Suarez is a tough matchup. The left-hander has been dealing, allowing just six earned runs over his last 39 2/3 innings pitched.
That said, he’s had the benefit of a very easy schedule, which includes matchups against the light-hitting Guardians, Rockies, and multiple starts against the Pirates. Right-handers have also been more successful against Suarez, hitting for a .237 average against him.
Kirk is just seeing the ball so well right now, so at this price, my MLB picks have to include his Over 1.5 total bases, which he’s done seven times in this 11-game period.
Jo Adell Over 0.5 RBI (+220 at BetMGM)
Welcome to the latest episode of "Has Jo Adell Figured It Out?" The former top prospect of the Los Angeles Angels is on another hot streak, but the question with Adell the last couple of seasons is, will it last?
Well, I’m betting it does for at least one more game as the Angels visit the Baltimore Orioles.
Adell enters this matchup hitting .333 with a 1.231 OPS, including a whopping seven home runs and 14 RBIs over his last 15 games. And there is some hope that this is no fluke.
The 26-year-old outfielder now ranks in the 67th percentile in expected batting average and the 94th percentile in expected slugging. So, while he’s still going to give you some strikeouts, the power in his bat plays, and he’s been making solid contact far more consistently.
Another reason to like Adell to stay hot is that he gets to face the corpse that is Charlie Morton tonight.
Morton is, unfortunately, the poster boy for why this Orioles pitching staff is so bad. The 41-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.67 expected ERA and surrendering a .263 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 21st and 32nd percentiles among MLB pitchers, respectively.
He’s also giving up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 20th percentile in average exit velocity.
That should play into Adell’s hands. He’s driven in at least one run in seven of his last 14 games, and at this price, in this matchup, it’s impossible not to back him to drive in another one tonight.
Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 at bet365)
I don’t think enough people are talking about the season that Jose Ramirez is having. The Cleveland Guardians' third baseman is one of the toughest outs in baseball right now, and I expect that to continue in tonight’s matchup against the Seattle Mariners.
Ramirez comes into this game hitting .331 with a .938, 12 home runs, and 33 RBIs. But it’s been a little unbelievable how good he’s been lately.
Want to hear a ridiculous stat? Ramirez has at least one hit in 32 of his last 33 games. He’s hitting .391 with a 1.107 OPS. He also has more extra-base hits (18) than he does strikeouts (14) over that span.
Tonight, he’ll dig in against Mariners starter Luis Castillo, and the 32-year-old right-hander just hasn’t had the same stuff we’ve been used to seeing from him in the past.
The velocity of his fastball has dipped, but he’s had trouble locating his slider and sinker as well, and they are getting crushed. As a result, Castillo ranks in the 21st percentile in expected ERA and the 18th in opponent expected batting average.
Not great numbers if you’re trying to get a guy like Ramirez out. On top of that, Ramirez has a .573 xSLG in his career vs. Castillo, which includes two triples and three home runs.
Ramirez has topped 1.5 total bases 19 times in his last 26 games, and oddsmakers are still giving us +130 for him to do it again. Sign me up.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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