The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will once again renew their rivalry with a weekend series in Beantown.
With just five days between their last meeting, my Yankees vs. Red Sox predictions forgo picking a side, in favor of a player prop with a ton of value.
Find out why Abraham Toro is the subject of tonight's MLB picks for Friday, June 13.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bet: Abraham Toro Under 0.5 strikeouts (-115 at bet365)
These teams played just last week, with the same pitchers facing off in one of those meetings.
The outcome largely followed expectations, with Garrett Crochet outpitching Ryan Yarbrough, though the game was a bit more high-scoring than my projections anticipated.
Tonight, I expect the Boston Red Sox to take care of business with a few notable advantages in their favor. In their previous meeting, Boston's bats, not their pitching, secured the victory. The Red Sox's big lefty struggled, exiting after yielding five earned runs, but that stat line deceives when you break it down. After all, he allowed just six hits and was hindered by some bad luck on those hits, as the expected batting average would indicate. I believe he'll rebound tonight, though the -150 odds offer little value. I'm headed to the prop market and have found a play with a sizable edge in Abraham Toro under 0.5 strikeouts.
After being acquired from the Oakland Athletics last season, Toro has been a nice bright spot for the Red Sox so far this season. He comes in with a .330 batting average, five homers, and 12 RBIs, promoting a nice power boost in the Red Sox lineup, especially one that doesn't have Alex Bregman for the moment.
Toro enters this game with a streak of three consecutive games with at least one strikeout, one short of his season-high. However, this streak is unlikely to extend to four games, a mark he hasn't reached since 2022. The pitchers he faced in those games—two high-strikeout right-handers with K rates above 25%—relied heavily on sliders, a pitch Toro occasionally chases. Things should be much easier tonight against a very different hurler.
Amongst batters with at least 100 plate appearances, Toro ranks just outside the top 25 of players with the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. That K rate of 13.7% is easily the lowest amongst Red Sox players, with the next closest being just over 19%. That's a nice feather in our cap.
In addition to that, Yarbrough's K rate, which sits just above average (23%), feels more like an anomaly than anything else. Why? We have five years of data before this season, during which the lefty posted a K rate below 20%. There has been no significant change in his pitching style that would suggest otherwise. It's also noteworthy that Fenway Park is ranked as the #1 venue in the league for suppressing strikeouts, according to the BatX.
As a final note, Yarbrough has gotten the majority of his whiffs off the changeup at a clip of 43%. What is the problem when facing Toro and turning to that pitch? He doesn't strike out against those pitches with a K rate of 15.4%—the second lowest amongst Red Sox players with at least ten plate appearances this season.
With so much in his favor, this is my favorite bet in the entire game. My fair price, calculated using a probability model and incorporating the stadium environment, came to around -140. I'd play it down to that.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Abraham Toro Under 0.5 strikeouts
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
We paired Aaron Judge to go deep with our best bet for tonight’s same-game parlay. If there’s been a knock on Crochet, it’s been that he’s had a bit of a home run problem.
His homerun per nine innings over the last two months has climbed to .96. That’s still a fairly strong number, but it’s a bit too high for a player who throws the fastball as much as he does facing someone like Judge. In addition to that, although he’s failed to go deep against Crochet in five plate appearances, Judge has an average exit velocity of 117 against him.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox live odds
Yankees vs Red Sox opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +120 | Boston -140
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-180) | Boston -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 52 games (+5.75 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts |
| Date | Friday, 6-13-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, NESN |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 4.17 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Garrett Crochet (6-4, 2.35 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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