The Philadelphia Phillies (65-43) head to the Pacific Northwest in dire need of some wins after losing four straight and going 3-9 since the All-Star Break. Will a three-game series with a shorthanded Seattle Mariners (57-53) squad do the trick?
Let’s take a look at the player prop market with our Phillies vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for Friday, August 2.
Phillies vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Seattle Mariners overhauled their lineup at the trade deadline. The biggest addition of all came a bit early and he has established himself as a potent force for a team that was in dire need of some firepower. That man is Randy Arozarena.
After a tortuously slow start to the season, Arozarena has increased his productivity every month. He’s now fully ramped up and posted a pristine 162 wRC+ and .395 wOBA in July while homering five times.
The Philadelphia Phillies send feel-good story Tyler Phillips to the mound. While he’s been a heartwarming success story through his first three starts in the big leagues — most recently throwing a complete-game shutout against the Cleveland Guardians — the reality is that he projects as a beatable starting pitcher.
The most bearish projection systems paint him with a 5.27 ERA and 4.96 FIP, and it’s understandable considering his ERA at Triple-A the last two seasons was 4.69 in 2023 and 4.89 this year. However, the most notable part of his profile is his splits against right-handed batters.
He has severe reverse splits, holding left-handed batters to a .222 BA but allowing righties to hit .280 at Triple-A this year. Those splits have continued in the big leagues as lefties are 5-for-41 with no home runs and one double while righties are 12-for-48 with three dingers and four doubles.
If you’re still dubious, consider that his Triple-A splits a year ago were also poor. He allowed righties to hit .294 while posting a 1.42 WHIP against them, so it’s evident that something isn’t working.
Now’s the time to sell high on Phillips after a fantastic outing against Cleveland. It’s worth noting that the Guardians have floundered at the plate lately, ranking 24th in both wRC+ (76) and wOBA (.272) against RHP since the All-Star Break. Seattle has heated up with a 112 wRC+ and .322 wOBA against RHP in that span, and Arozarena will need to be a factor if they hope to continue their newfound success at the plate.
Phillies vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Randy Arozarena 2+ total bases
Mariners moneyline
Bryan Woo Under 4.5 strikeouts
Mariners fans will be glad to see Bryan Woo on the mound. If it seems like they win every game that he starts, the reality isn’t far from that notion — they’ve come away victorious in eight of his 11 starts.
He’s been downright unhittable at T-Mobile Park, holding batters to a .155 BA and .176 OBP. With his 2.65 FIP and 0.61 WHIP at home, I like the Mariners to come away victorious against a struggling Phillies squad that has lost four in a row and is 3-9 since the break.
The thing about Woo is he hasn’t been allowed to pitch deep into games, throwing no more than 73 pitches in his last three starts. He ranks in just the 12th percentile in whiff rate (20%) and the 16th percentile in K-rate (17.8%), and the Phillies don’t strike out much against RHP (21.8% K rate).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mariners odds
Phillies vs Mariners live odds
Phillies vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 | Seattle -1.5
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +118 | Seattle -109
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle is 4-0 at home when Woo is the starting pitcher.
- Seattle has been a great bet to go Under the total at home (17-36-1 O/U). The Mariners have routinely fallen short of expectations, going Over their Team Total in just 20 of their last 53 games at T-Mobile Park.
- Philadelphia has cashed the Under in 32 of its last 58 games.
Phillies vs Mariners trend
In the three games that Tyler Phillips has started, eight of the 10 batters to record 2+ total bases have been right-handed. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mariners
Phillies vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Friday, 8-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, ROOT Sports Northwest |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Tyler Phillips (3-0, 1.80 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryan Woo (4-1, 2.35 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mariners latest injuries
Phillies vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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