How low can they go? The Philadelphia Phillies look to break a six-game losing streak as they face the Seattle Mariners in the series finale.
Join me as I examine Mariners' hurler Logan Gilbert’s props in my MLB picks and Phillies vs. Mariners predictions for Sunday, August 4.
Phillies vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies are certainly going through it. A loss on Saturday made it six straight without a victory and moved them to 3-11 since the All-Star Break. They’ll look to break the slump on Sunday with a projected pitchers duel between Zack Wheeler and Logan Gilbert.
While Wheeler gives his team a great shot, it’s difficult to feel good about the lineup behind him. They’ve fallen apart, posting the second-worst wOBA (.263) and wRC+ (67) against RHP since the Break.
Gilbert has been a joy to watch this season and has a pretty 3.11 ERA, 3.22 xERA, and 3.33 FIP heading into this matchup. He’s looking to bounce back after a blow-up spot his last time out, surrendering seven earned in just 2 2/3 IP at Boston.
There are reasons to think he’ll get right back on the horse. He’s been superb at T-Mobile Park, holding opposing batters to a .191 BA and .233 OBP while posting a 0.86 WHIP.
The weather forecast sets up well with winds of 4.7 mph blowing in toward the third base dugout.
Gilbert should have a fine leash after throwing only 69 pitches in his last outing. With the Phillies being so ineffective at the plate lately and this one projecting as a pitcher’s duel, one anticipates him pitching deep into the game.
What does that mean? I’m betting that it results in more strikeouts.
The 27-year-old has bumped his swinging strike rate up two percentage points from a year ago to 14.3% and ranks in the 84th percentile in whiff rate (30.1%). The punchouts are there to be had against a Philadelphia team with a 24.1% K rate against RHP since the Break.
Gilbert has thrown 7+ strikeouts in three of his last four starts and I’m betting on him to do so again against a floundering Phillies team.
Phillies vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Logan Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts
Zack Wheeler Under 7.5 strikeouts
Mariners moneyline
Wheeler’s K prop is typically listed at 6.5 but the books have bumped it up to 7.5 in this matchup. Seattle has a reputation for being a punchout machine at the plate, especially against RHP, but that hasn’t been the case lately and the lineup was remade by the trade deadline.
Seattle has a 21.8% K rate against RHP at home since the Break and has made pitchers work through counts, posting the third-highest walk rate (11.7%). That’s a vast improvement to what they were doing previously, and I don’t think the books have corrected quickly enough.
Since I’m betting on Gilbert having a fine outing and Seattle’s lineup is a tad undervalued in the betting market, it’s certainly no gimme that Philadelphia breaks its six-game losing streak.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mariners odds
Phillies vs Mariners live odds
Phillies vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+135) | Seattle +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -128 | Seattle +118
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Phillies vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- One of the reasons the Mariners are atop the AL West standings is because they’re so tough to beat at home (33-23). The Phillies are slightly above .500 (27-24) on the road.
- The Under is usually a good bet in Mariners home games, cashing in 36 of their last 55 games at T-Mobile Park.
- Seattle is 1-9 O/U in Gilbert’s 10 starts at home.
Phillies vs Mariners trend
Gilbert has gone Over his K prop in seven of his last nine starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mariners.
Phillies vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, 8-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, RSNW |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (10-5, 2.94 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Logan Gilbert (6-7, 3.11 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mariners latest injuries
Phillies vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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