The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies tonight in the only Game 3 of the Wild Card round.
We've seen plenty of drama throughout. Austin Riley won Game 1 with a three-run homer, while Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber's heroics erased a multi-run deficit late in Game 2.
Let's break down a few angles for what should be an exciting Game 3, with my Phillies vs. Braves prop picks for Thursday, Oct. 1. Be sure to also read our full Phillies vs. Braves predictions.
Best Phillies vs Braves props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
55% |
| Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
64% |
 Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI |
52% |
Prop pick #1: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Ronald Acuna Jr. has had a quiet series for the Atlanta Braves. I think that changes, and would play the Over to 57%.
Acuna Jr. entered the playoffs on a heater, posting a .329 average, .419 wOBA, and 15.6% barrel rate against right-handed pitching over his final 25 games.
He’s likely to see a few at-bats against Zack Wheeler and/or Aaron Nola, and he has an encouraging track record against both.
Acuna Jr. owns a .322 ISO vs. Wheeler — one of the best pitchers in baseball — while he hit .354 over 65 career ABs against Nola.
Prop pick #2: Ozzie Albies Under 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Ozzie Albies struggled mightily down the stretch, and I’m happy to fade him in the H+R+RBI market to 66%. He hit just .133 over 90 at-bats in the final 25 games.
He was ineffective against both handedness, batting .183 against southpaws and .145 against righties.
Albies is likely to see more right-handed arms than lefties in this game, which lowers his already low floor at the plate.
Philadelphia will be using the best arms they have to offer as well. It’s certainly possible Albies sees Wheeler, Jesus Luzardo, and Jhoan Duran in the same contest, which is not a recipe for success.
Prop pick #3: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Bryce Harper came through in a big way to help the Philadelphia Phillies keep their season alive. He should have a big say in Game 3 as well, and I like his H+R+RBI line to 54%.
Harper owns ungodly numbers against the slider-fastball combination, posting a .344 average, .443 ISO, and .518 wOBA during the regular season.
He’s gotten on base in six of 12 plate appearances vs. Holmes and has also hit .293 with a .384 ISO over 99 career at-bats against Braves bullpen arms.
It’s going to be a challenge to get Harper out every time he steps up to the plate.
- Prop picks: 7-5, +1.25 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
