The opening game of this NL series gets underway on Thursday evening with the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field. MLB odds have Arizona as a slight -112 favorite, while the total sits at 9.5.
My Phillies vs. Diamondbacks prediction favors a high-scoring affair, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, August 8.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Over 9.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies hand the ball to left-hander Kolby Allard, and I am pessimistic about his chances in this matchup. He’s only made two appearances on the mound this season, but the southpaw carries a 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
While that is a small sample size, his underlying metrics are equally poor. If he officially qualified, Allard would rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, strikeout rate, and barrel rate.
Meanwhile, left-hander Jordan Montgomery takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he is even worse. Montgomery sports a fade-worthy 6.37 ERA and 1.66 WHIP through 16 starts this season.
Positive regression is unlikely as the left-hander also ranks in the sixth percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate. These woes are likely to continue against Philadelphia, a team he possesses a 6.30 ERA against through two career meetings.
Following Montgomery is a poor bullpen that ranks in the bottom seven of the league in ERA, FIP, and xFIP.
Both teams rank in the Top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
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Phillies vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 home runs
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 hits
If we are backing a high-scoring affair, then we obviously need the hits to support it. Let’s start with Ketel Marte, who has gone nuclear over the past couple of weeks.
Marte boasts a .357 BA, .911 SLG and 1.326 OPS over that stretch while adding 10 home runs.
Meanwhile, Bryce Harper boasts a .500 BA, .667 SLG and .503 wOBA through six career plate appearances against Montgomery.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds
Phillies vs Diamondbacks live odds
Phillies vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+142) | Arizona +1.5 (-172)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -112 | Arizona -104
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Diamondbacks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -112 favorite before the line flipped on Thursday morning.
- Arizona is currently one of the hottest teams in baseball, so this small change in price for the home team shouldn’t be too surprising.
- The total opened at 9.5 and remains at that price.
- I only think this number goes up, due to all the variables mentioned in my best bet.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks trend
There have been 10 or more total runs scored in seven of Arizona’s past 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Philadelphia, ARID |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Kolby Allard (0-0, 4.50 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Jordan Montgomery (7-5, 6.37 ERA) |
Phillies vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Phillies vs Diamondbacks weather
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