The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of the NLDS on Sunday evening at Dodger Stadium. MLB odds have Los Angeles as a -145 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Padres vs. Dodgers prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the starting pitching matchup with Jack Flaherty toeing the rubber vs. Yu Darvish.
Read on for my best MLB picks for October 6.
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers Game 2?
I am optimistic about the Los Angeles Dodgers extending their series lead to 2-0 on Sunday evening. Not only am I backing the Dodgers, but I am backing them to win by multiple runs once again.
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My Padres vs Dodgers best bet
Pick
Dodgers -1.5 (+150 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Dodgers hand the ball to right-hander Jack Flaherty in Game 2, and he should serve as a good candidate to back. Through 28 regular season starts, Flaherty posted a 13-7 record with a 3.17 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Flaherty is a successful pitcher because he makes opposing lineups struggle to make contact. The right-hander sports a .237 xBA and ranks in the Top 10 percentile in both whiff and strikeout rate.
That is good news against a San Diego Padres team that ranks first in both hits per game and BA.
While the Padres’ greatest strength is limited against Flaherty, the opposite is true for the Dodgers as they are slated to go against right-hander Yu Darvish. Not that Darvish is bad, but he ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
That’s a problematic combination against a powerhouse lineup like Los Angeles, which ranks first in both SLG and OPS.
Finally, the Dodgers’ bullpen ranks higher than San Diego’s in ERA.
If you like Los Angeles to win this game, then I think the way to back it is through the run line as 15 of the Dodgers’ past 18 wins have come by at least a two-run margin.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Dodgers -1.5
Jack Flaherty Over 4.5 strikeouts
Freddie Freeman Over 0.5 hits
I want to go back to Flaherty’s strength of limiting contact, which I highlighted above through his strong underlying strikeout metrics. You can currently find the right-hander’s strikeout prop at 4.5, a total he has surpassed in 11 of his past 12 starts.
Flaherty has also eclipsed this total in four of his past five starts against San Diego.
Freddie Freeman boasts a .263 BA through 42 career plate appearances against Darvish and has recorded 16 hits over his past 13 games overall.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +125 | Los Angeles -150
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-175) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles opened as a -150 favorite and has since been bet down to -145.
- This miniscule line movement against the Dodgers doesn’t scare me off of them on Sunday.
- The total opened at 8 and remains at that number as of Sunday morning.
- The juice is on the Over, and considering the strength of each lineup, I believe it is more likely that this total goes to 8.5 rather than 7.5.
Padres vs Dodgers trend
Of Los Angeles’ past 18 wins, 15 have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs Dodgers.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 2 info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Yu Darvish (7-3, 3,31 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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