The New York Yankees took care of business on Friday night against the Baltimore Orioles, and showed no signs of slowing down.
With the Orioles sending a vulnerable pitcher to the mound, my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions expect today to be a repeat of yesterday as the Yankees win in a high-scoring affair.
Read all about it in my MLB picks for Saturday, May 2.
Who will win Orioles vs Yankees today: Yankees moneyline (-163)
Kyle Bradish's arsenal is a problem against this New York Yankees lineup.
His fastball, breaking ball, and overall pitching run value all grade in the Bottom 15th percentile, and his walk rate sits in the 24th percentile, meaning he is going to put runners on base. That's a problem against such a potent offense.
New York’s league-leading barrel rate is a prevailing story in this matchup. Bradish is a true groundball pitcher, and that should help him in some aspects of this matchup, particularly against the bottom of the lineup. But he’s not elite enough in that category.
His 50% groundball rate is in the 80th percentile of baseball, and that’s likely due for some regression given his historical numbers.
I simply don’t think that’s good enough to overcome a Yankees team that is rolling like they are for the moment, especially when you have a Bottom 30th percentile hard-hit rate and barrel rate. I’d play this to -170.
COVERS INTEL: This matchup features two teams ranking in the Top 3 of baseball in hard-hit rate against two pitchers with hard-hit rates in the Bottom 30% of the sport.
Orioles vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
Rinse and repeat from yesterday, with a lot of the same reasons. Both pitchers have real vulnerabilities, and the Yankees should score a good amount of runs, meaning the Baltimore Orioles won’t have to do much.
Moving on from Bradish, it’s past time for Ryan Weathers to come down to earth. His xERA of 4.63 is nearly a full run and a half over his actual.
What’s pushing that expected number the most is a poor hard-hit rate and barrel rate that both rank in the Bottom 25 percentile of the sport. This Orioles lineup isn’t overwhelming with power, but the likes of Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman should still be enough to punish here.
- ML/RL bets: 12-9, +2.62 units
- Over/Under bets: 13-9, +3.72 units
Orioles vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Orioles +149 | Yankees -162
- Run line: Orioles +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Orioles vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the F5 Moneyline in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+7.20 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
How to watch Orioles vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Saturday, May 2, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Kyle Bradish (1-3, 4.20 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (1-2, 3.21 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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