Orioles vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Baltimore Gets Bombed in the Bronx

The New York Yankees are mired in their worst slump in recent memory. It's been brief, but Monday's loss to the Baltimore Orioles stung. Tonight, we don't expect a repeat as we're looking for the Bronx Bombers to cruise to victory by a wide margin.

Last Updated: May 24, 2022 1:15 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Aaron Judge New York Yankees MLB
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The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles meet up tonight for Game 2 of their three-game series in the Bronx. The first of these three saw Baltimore extend the Yankees' losing streak to three by a score of 6-4.

You knew a slump would be coming for the Yankees, and it may be here. They've lost three straight, and four of their last five. The question for the Yankees is how long will the slump last?

For Baltimore, the season has been about what it usually is for them: getting wins where you can and waiting on prospects. They've certainly been better this season than last and look to be building towards something.

Who will grab the second game between these two in Yankee Stadium? Find out in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Orioles Tuesday, May 24th.

Orioles vs Yankees odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Opening odds for today's matchup were released last night. As expected, the Yankees opened as heavy favorites at -260. However, the O's have taken a bit of money since then, and New York has fallen to -245 in most places. As a result, Baltimore is returning at an attractive moneyline price of +205.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Orioles vs Yankees predictions

Picks made on 5/24/2022 at 12:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Orioles vs Yankees game info

Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
TV: MASN, YES Network

Orioles vs Yankees betting preview

Starting pitchers

Bruce Zimmerman (2-2, 3.48 ERA): Zimmermann has improved upon last season, but that's not saying a ton. His exit velocity, barrel rate, and expected ERA all rank near the bottom of baseball. He struggled the last time he saw this Yankees team just five days ago, surrendering five runs on seven hits through five innings of work. It could have — and probably should have — been even worse. The Yankees hitters did an excellent job of barrelling him up. That's been what most of Zimmermann's month has looked like, where he has a 1.26 WHIP. While Zimmermann's overall ERA hasn't been precisely bad, it feels like he's flirting with disaster in most of his outings, and his 4.93 expected ERA would seem to agree with that.

Jordan Montgomery (0-1, 3.35 ERA): After a great April, Montgomery has been hit a little more in May. He's given up nine earned runs through 20 innings this month compared to six through 20 in the previous one. Montgomery feasts on teams' chase rates to help him get outs, ranking in the 94th percentile of baseball there. He's not a starter who will dominate a game, but he's rarely going to have many blow-ups.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Orioles: None.
Yankees: Josh Donaldson 3B(Out), Joey Gallo LF (Out), Aroldis Chapman RP (Out), Kyle Higashoika C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees

Orioles vs Yankees picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Run line analysis

I can't back a professional baseball team against another (supposedly) professional baseball team at -260 odds. Sometimes that may burn me, but that's a hard stance. But I will be backing the Yankees today, and I'll look to do it on the first five innings market for a little bit better value.

The Yankees are due to break out of this slump sooner or later, and this seems as good a spot as any. As previously mentioned, New York lit up Zimmermann when they last saw him just five days ago. They scored five runs, but the damage could have been worse had the Yankees converted more with runners in scoring position.

Hard-hit balls and barrel rates are hurting Zimmermann. Basically, when teams make contact against Zimmermann, they make hard contact, and the Yankees are the best at doing both of these things.

The analysis of this one is pretty simple. New York does very well, while the Baltimore starting pitcher does badly. Because of that, I'll be grabbing New York on the F5 run line. My projections see about a 10% edge here, which is enough for me to pull the trigger.

Prediction: Yankees -0.5 first five innings (-145 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

The Yankees may clear this total by themselves. But, ignoring the pitching matchup that we have here, let's take a look at a few trends:

  • The Over is 4-1 in the Orioles' last five vs. a team with a winning record.
  • The Over is 4-1 in the Orioles' last five overall.
  • The Over is 5-1 in the last two meetings between these teams.

While I'm not the biggest trends bettor in the world regarding baseball, these are tough to ignore. So why are we getting such a friendly total with these two pitchers on the mound? It feels like a gift.

Maybe the weather has something to do with it. It will be a cooler evening in Yankee Stadium and winds will be blowing in from the outfield, but in the past, a wind that stayed under 10 mph (as forecasted today) hasn't caused problems for run output.

The Yankees are well-suited to rake against Zimmermann, as we've explained, but Montgomery hasn't had a scoreless outing once this month. He'll find some success against the O's because of their chase rate, but he should be counted on to give up one or two runs. That's likely all we'll need.

When I look at my projections, I see this going over seven runs around 65% of the time. That's over a 10% edge on the posted number on FanDuel, so I have to grab the Over here.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Nothing to overcomplicate here, as New York will control this game throughout. They staked Gerritt Cole to a 2-0 lead last night and let it slip away. That won't happen again. Because of that, I'm looking at alternate markets to take advantage of what I believe will be a blowout.

My favorite bet is the Yankees -2.5. I have the implied finish of this one around 6-3, with the Yankees winning this game by over two runs around 55% of the time. I'll happily make this bet with plus money on the table.

Pick: Yankees -2.5 (+135 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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