Mets vs Giants Picks and Predictions: Mets Showing No Signs of Dropoff

After clobbering the Giants 13-3 last night at Oracle Park, the Mets send Chris Bassitt to the mound to face Logan Webb in Game 2 of their three-game series in the Bay Area. We're leaning towards New York and the Over. Find out more in our Giants vs. Mets

May 24, 2022 • 15:37 ET • 4 min read
Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets (29-15) followed up their series win against the Rockies by winning the opening game of their three-game set against the San Francisco Giants (22-19) on Monday night.

Following last night's loss, the Giants are now amidst their second five-game losing streak on the season. Both clubs will send one of their better arms to duel it out in the second game, with Chris Bassitt taking the mound for the Mets and Logan Webb doing the same for the Giants. Can Bassitt clinch a series win or will Logan Webb flip the Giants' luck on Tuesday night?

Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs Giants on Tuesday, May 24th.

Mets vs Giants odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Giants opened as -125 favorites and are mostly still available at that price. The total opened at 7.0 and juiced Overs can still be found at that number, otherwise juiced Unders listed at 7.5 are also at some books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Giants predictions

Picks made on 5/24/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Giants game info

Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, NBC Bay Area

Mets vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

Chris Bassitt (4-2, 2.77 ERA): Bassitt made his first All-Star game last season and finished with a 3.15 ERA and 12-4 record. The 33-year-old joined the Mets via trade just weeks before the season began, and has been a great return on investment thus far. Bassitt has pitched to a 2.77 ERA in eight starts but is coming off one of his rougher ones after allowing four earned runs off of nine hits against the Cardinals last Thursday.

Logan Webb (5-1, 3.54 ERA): Webb was one of the MLB's young breakout starters in 2021, going 11-3 and posting a 3.03 ERA while doing so. The 25-year-old is one of eleven pitchers with five or more wins in 2022, notching just a single start in which he has given up more than three runs. In his last outing, he allowed just four hits and two walks in seven innings to the Rockies but walked away with a no-decision after the bullpen allowed three runs in the eighth.


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: No key injuries to report.
Giants: Curt Casali C (Out), Brandon Belt 1B (Out), LaMonte Wade Jr. (Out), Austin Slater CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Logan Webb has allowed three or more runs in five of his last six starts, and the Mets have gone Over Tuesday's total of 7 in his last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Giants

Mets vs Giants picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Being a starting pitcher can often be a thankless endeavor, and Chris Bassitt may be one of the best embodiments of that in today's MLB. In his last four seasons, Bassitt has racked up a 29-14 record while pitching to a 3.23 ERA, and in three of them, he pitched to a 3.15 ERA or better. It wasn't until last year that Bassitt finally got any type of recognition when he was named to his first All-Star game.

The right-hander doesn't have a large social media presence and his career earnings are $20 million less than what Gerrit Cole will make this year alone. Bassitt simply goes out on the mound and performs. 2022 has been no different in that regard, even following a change of scenery, allowing one run or less in five of his eight starts. 

The Mets have won six of the games he has started, which is contributing to one of New York's best starts in a long time. They have won five of their last six, and hold the fourth-best record in all of baseball. Given Bassitt's jump from the American League to the National League, he hasn't faced many of the Giants' batters in his career. Current Giants' hitters have just 62 combined plate appearances against Bassitt across his eight seasons thus far, and the results of those limited looks don't paint any discernible picture.

Logan Webb has also been a dependable arm to start 2022 following a stellar 2021 campaign (12-4, 3.15 ERA). He has been touched up a bit more than Bassitt has, allowing at least three earned runs in all but three of his eight starts. Despite that, the Giants have walked away with a win in six of those games, largely due to their edge in run support.

Their 4.90 runs per game rank third, but the Mets are not far behind in that regard with 4.70 per game, good for fifth in the MLB. With Bassitt having a better year than Webb and the Giants' batters with a slight edge over the Mets, the only other place to look is towards the bullpen.

The Mets are around league average in reliever ERA (3.62), whereas the Giants rank a lowly 23rd. New York also has edges in strikeout rate (3rd vs 28th), walk rate (14th vs 23rd), and batting average allowed (12th vs 26th).

Prediction: Mets moneyline (+115 at PointsBet)

Over/Under analysis

The Giants are the third-friendliest Overs team this year, going 23-17-1 (57.5%) that way thus far. The Mets rank twelfth in that regard, going 20-21-3 (48.8%). With respect to Tuesday's total of 7, the Giants have gone over that number in all but two of Webb's eight starts.

The Mets have managed to go Over seven runs just three times in Bassitt's eight starts, but have landed exactly on that number an additional three times. As mentioned before, Webb has surrendered three or more runs in all but three of his starts, and if the porous Giants' bullpen comes in early, then the Over is looking favorable here.

The wind is also projected to be blowing out to left-center at around 14 mph by first pitch, which may help a ball or two get out of Oracle that otherwise would have stayed in.

Prediction: Over 7 (-115 at PointsBet)

Best bet

It's hard to argue that Bassitt has anything less than at least a small edge over Webb when considering their performances in 2022, as well as the two pitcher's larger body of work. However, it's also entirely fair to say that the Giants have been a better offense and much more reliable at plating runs.

In that sense, those two edges can level each other out. However, when the focus shifts towards each team's bullpen, then the matchup more than heavily favors the Mets who are a league-average unit compared to the Giants' collection of relievers who have been amongst the worst in baseball so far.

Take that edge to the bank and grab the small underdog.

Pick: Mets moneyline (+115 at PointsBet)

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