Phillies vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Weather Casts Doubt on Fried's Edge

Give the Braves the edge on the mound, but with the Phillies lineup returning to form and weather threatening to disrupt this game's early flow, our MLB betting picks think there might be too much value in the underdogs — and a now-healthy Bryce Harper.

May 23, 2022 • 17:03 ET • 4 min read
Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies MLB
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The Philadelphia Phillies have not enjoyed much success at Truist Park, but that didn’t slow them down last night with a 7-3 win over the Braves. Joe Girardi’s team has now won back-to-back games and has taken over second place in the division.

Now they enter Tuesday night’s match vs. a tough opponent in lefty Max Fried as +155 road dogs (O/U 8.5) and the weather could also be an issue with a 75% chance of precipitation and lightning a possibility right around first pitch. 

Can either of these NL East teams go on a run and cut into the Mets’ lead in the division or will consistency be an issue with both clubs this season? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Braves on May 24. 

Phillies vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Braves have moved plenty on the ML after opening at -145 and now sit as high as -175 as of Tuesday afternoon. 

The total opened at 8 and has now hit 8.5. The Braves are the second-best Over team in baseball with a 59% Over rate and humid conditions are expected.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Phillies vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 5/24/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Phillies vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC Sports

Phillies vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Kyle Gibson (3-2, 3.98 ERA): Gibson, like most of the Philadelphia starters, has enjoyed a decent two months of baseball — but some underlying numbers stand out here. He’s been giving up a ton of hits of late — 22 in his last 15-plus innings — as the sinker/slider/cutter pitcher has allowed a ton of balls in play, which hurts when you have a Bottom-10 defense behind you. 

He doesn’t allow a lot of hard-hit contact (64th percentile) but fails to get deep, recording 18 or more outs just once in his last five starts. He hands the ball off to a Philly bullpen that sits 27th in xFIP.

Gibson has made just two starts against the Braves over his career and is 1-1 SU with a 4.75 ERA. 

Max Fried (4-2, 3.31 ERA): Fried took the loss in his two opening starts but since then, the lefty has gone a perfect 4-0 across his last six. Over the last month, he has a 30/5 K/BB ratio and has allowed just 28 hits in 31 innings. He can be hit for the long ball, but this is still one of the best young(er) pitchers in baseball and finished as the best starter in the second half of the season last year with a 1.74 ERA.

He currently sits in the Top 2% in chase rate, but in his 14 career games versus the Phillies, Fried has a 4.01 ERA and an OPS against of .801, which are well above his career numbers. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Phillies: Didi Gregarious SS (Out).
Braves: Tyler Matzek RP (Out), Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out).

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 6-0-1 in Braves' last seven games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves

Phillies vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies went into Atlanta last night with a 9-22 SU mark at Truist Park since 2018. They did manage to pick up the win, but the books were expecting that with Zack Wheeler on the mound. Following a big win vs. the Dodgers on Sunday, the Phillies are riding a little momentum, but can they keep it going tonight against Max Fried in a game that could see some weather issues?

Weather is the most important thing in starting a handicapping process. Some signs are showing this game could be postponed or delayed with most sources expecting a combination of rain and lightning. The forecast is improving but lightning could halt the proceedings.

Rain also makes everything different, and from our standpoint, these types of games should be low-risk wagers. Fried could go three innings and then get the hook if pitching conditions aren’t optimal or if there is a long enough delay. Shaking him from his pregame routine is also something to worry about as a Braves backer.

Basically, there are too many variables to control, and laying -175 with the Braves is a tough pill to swallow as the movement on the Braves' moneyline is mostly due to the advantage they have on the bump.

Kyle Gibson has been great and is offering quality innings for a team that sits in the Top 5 in SLG% and Top 10 in wOBA. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts and faces an Atlanta lineup that sits in the middle of the league in wOBA and below average in wRC+.

The Braves might sit in the Top 5 in home runs, but they struggle to string hits together thanks to a team AVG that sits 25th in the league between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. If the weather is a factor, long balls will be at a premium and Gibson is not a pitcher that gives up four-baggers easily (four on the season across eight starts).

The Phillies have one of the worst chase rates in baseball, which is a bad matchup against Fried who is one of the best in the league at getting batters to chase, but with possible wet conditions or disruption in preparations, there are some variables that could be working against the Atlanta starter. 

The series opener had the Phillies as the favorite but now we’re seeing an almost 100-point swing in the price. Combined with the possible rain/lightning, it's a little much for us. The Phillies have some players who are shaking off some slow starts (J.T. Realmuto, Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber) while Bryce Harper will be playing his third game after missing five and returning to the lineup on Saturday. This is not a bad team to hitch our wagon to tonight.

Gibson has been a reliable starter and the Philadelphia bullpen currently sits third in the league in WAR behind the Yankees and Brewers. The Braves are missing some big names in the bullpen and if contest is decided late and neither starter gets their full 90-plus pitches, we have to take a low-risk play on the dogs here in a game that might have plenty of variables.

PredictionPhillies moneyline (+155 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

We all know that runs were down early in the season and that the hotter weather is helping get those numbers up. Unders are hitting at nearly 54% on the season but over the last 30 days, Overs are hitting at 51%. 

Tonight’s hitting conditions aren’t great, but the temperature is relatively high (77 degrees) and the humidity (87%) is as well. If the lightning and rain hit early, it could disrupt the starters here, which would give us a slight edge on the Over if either team had to dig into the pen early. 

The Phillies’ pen has been pretty impressive this season with a sub-4.00 ERA and a WAR in the Top 3, but this is still a relief corps that has 20 losses on the season and could be pitching above expectations considering it ranked in the bottom-third in most categories a season ago. Gibson has struggled to get deep and is not a pitcher to beat you with velocity. He has given up 16 hits over his last nine-plus innings and plays with a poor defense behind him.

When Fried is on, he can be a nightmare for batters but he can get in trouble with the long ball. He gets a lot of people to chase, but gives up a pretty high hard-hit rate for a top-end pitcher as he sits in the bottom 50% in that metric. He’s allowed four home runs over his last five starts and Realmuto and Harper have taken him deep for a combined five times over 46 at-bats, with both batters hitting at least .350 off of Fried.

We know the Philly lineup can flex and there are some indicators that they are heating up, but the Braves have also been one of the best Over teams in baseball thanks to a lineup that leads the league in hard-hit percentage at nearly 40%. The team is hitting just .226 but has the fourth-best HR/FB ratio and has hit the second-most home runs in the NL this season. High temperature and high humidity could help carry the ball tonight if the rain stays away.

For you trend buffs, the Over has hit 10 times over the last 14 meetings in Atlanta, while the Braves are scoring over a full run more at home than on the road this season. The market is also warm on the Over, as this number has moved from 8 to 8.5.

PredictionOver 8.5 (-110 at bet365)

Best bet

Bryce Harper missed five games with an elbow injury recently but has played three games since and is getting back to his incredible season. The reigning NL MVP is slashing .294/.344/.590 this year. He’s 14th in baseball in OPS, 16th in wOBA, and has 24 extra-base hits in 34 games on the season. He’s also gone an impressive 7-for-20 versus Fried with two home runs over his career and is slugging better versus left-handed pitching this season.

Harper looks to be back to normal, has a high humidity environment at Truist tonight, is facing a pitcher he's touched frequently over his career, and the possible delay with lightning could hurt Fried’s routine or abbreviate his outing. The game total has started to climb which is good news for this prop as well. 

PickHarper Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at Caesars)

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