Brewers vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Burnes Rights Milwaukee's Ship in San Diego

The San Diego Padres rank in the bottom third of MLB in hitting against right-handed pitching. Tonight, they face Milwaukee Brewers ace Corbin Burnes in what looks to be a low-scoring affair. We like the Brewers to emerge victoriously.

May 24, 2022 • 08:52 ET • 4 min read
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres look to make it two in a row against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight after taking the series opener on Monday. This is a matchup between two of the better teams in the National League, so you’ll want to tune in and have some action on it. 

Will San Diego keep the Brewers at bay? Keep reading our MLB betting picks and predictions for our favorite picks between Brewers vs. Padres.

Brewers vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

After losing last night, Milwaukee opened as a -129 favorite in this second game against San Diego. The Brewers are now listed as high as -142, but there is a sportsbook that has their line at -128 as of this writing. 

The total is extremely low at 6.5, but that is nothing new for a game that features Corbin Burnes on the mound. It’ll be interesting to see if this number does end up at 7, as there is some juice on the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Brewers vs Padres predictions

Picks made on 5/24/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Brewers vs Padres game info

Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
Date: Tuesday, May 24, 2022
First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET

Brewers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Corbin Burnes (1-2, 2.27 ERA): Burnes is coming off a poor start by his standards, as he gave up four earned runs in six innings against the Atlanta Braves. Milwaukee did, however, end up winning that game, so his supporting cast stepped it up and had his back. Burnes had allowed two or fewer earned runs in six consecutive starts before that outing, so there’s not much to worry about here. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. 

Blake Snell (0-1, 7.36 ERA): Snell made his first appearance of the 2022 season on May 18, as he gave up three earned runs on three hits through 3 2-3 innings. Snell also issued three walks in the game and has some rust to knock off. However, the lefty is capable of doing big things if he can ever find his groove in San Diego. He was a legitimate ace with the Tampa Bay Rays, but the trade hasn’t paid dividends for the Friars thus far. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Brewers: Freddy Peralta P (Out), Jake Cousins P (Out), Justin Topa P (Out), Willy Adames SS (Out), J.C. Mejia P (Out), Jandel Gustave P (Out), Pedro Severino C (Out).
Padres: Mike Clevinger P (Out), Adrian Morejon P (Out), Matt Beaty OF (Out), Pierce Johnson P (Out), Austin Adams P (Out), Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Drew Pomeranz P (Out), Michel Baez P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six games with a total of 6.5 or less. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres

Brewers vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Corbin Burnes didn’t pitch all that well in his last trip to the mound, but he still gave up only four earned runs in six innings and his team came away with a win. That type of performance is pretty much the ace’s floor, and you should expect the righty to bounce right back with a stellar road start against this Padres lineup.

Last year, Burnes pitched six shutout innings and racked up 10 strikeouts in his only trip to Petco Park. San Diego also happens to have a lineup that is weak against right-handed pitching, making it nearly impossible to turn down Burnes at these odds. The Padres own a measly 89 wRC+ vs. right-handers (23rd in MLB) and a .647 OPS (25th). And Burnes is no ordinary righty.

On top of having one of the best pitchers in baseball in a prime match-up, the Brewers also get a crack at a struggling version of Blake Snell. In his first start this year, Snell gave up three earned runs in just 3 2-3 innings. He walked three batters in that outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, and he also gave up a homer.

Snell could easily find his groove at some point later in the year, but it has been quite some time since we saw the lefty on top of his game. It should take a little time for him to start feeling comfortable, and this Brewers lineup isn’t one that will make it easy on him. 

Milwaukee might be a team that is at its best against right-handed pitching, but the team is also in the top half of the league in on-base plus slugging and weighted runs created against lefties. This lineup should be able to do a little damage against Snell — especially if he’s not bringing his best stuff. So even if Milwaukee is merely OK against southpaws, it won’t take much from the lineup to give Burnes the run support he needs. 

Prediction: Brewers moneyline (-128 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

It’s really hard to take the Under on a game with a total this low, but having Burnes as one of the starters certainly makes it easier. The Under was actually 7-0-1 in the eight games leading up to Burnes’ last outing, and he has seen his share of games with low totals. It doesn’t matter how low the number is when Burnes is dialed in, and he should be able to dominate a Padres lineup that doesn’t like facing righties. 

The fact that Snell is a lefty means that this shouldn’t be too high scoring of a game for Milwaukee. The Brewers should put a few runs on the board, which would be enough for Burnes to take this home, but they aren’t great against lefties, so an offensive explosion isn’t likely.

Besides, Hunter Renfroe, their best weapon against southpaws, left last night's game with a hamstring injury and will almost certainly miss tonight's contest. Renfroe is batting .325 with a 1.106 OPS and five home runs in 45 plate appearances against left-handers this season, so his lumber will be missed.

The Under is also 6-1 in the last seven road games Milwaukee has played against left-handed starters. 

Prediction: Under 6.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Best bet

The Brewers squandered an opportunity to earn a win in San Diego last night, failing to score with the bases loaded and no outs in the top of the 10th inning before ultimately losing in the bottom of that same frame.

With that in mind, there will be a little more urgency to come away with a win in the second game of this series, and you have to like their chances with one of the best pitchers in the world facing a lineup that doesn’t normally hit righties, let alone elite ones. 

Milwaukee is 5-1 in its last six games with a total set at 6.5 or lower and having Burnes certainly helps in that regard. It also doesn’t hurt that the Brewers are 7-3 in the second game of their last 10 series. 

Pick: Brewers moneyline (-128 at WynnBET)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Brewers vs. Padres picks, you could win $25.63 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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