The Baltimore Orioles have won four of their last five games following a rough five-game skid, and begin a three-game road set with the Seattle Mariners tonight, who have now lost five of their last seven and eight of their last 11.
Can the Orioles keep their winning ways going against the struggling Mariners? Or will the Mariners use this home set to help straighten things out?
Continue reading for free MLB picks and Orioles vs Mariners predictions for Tuesday, July 2nd.
Orioles vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Orioles moneyline (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
After a small five-game skid starting two weeks ago, the Baltimore Orioles have quickly taken four of their last five including three of four from the World Series-defending Texas Rangers. On Tuesday they will open up a three-game set in Seattle, who have had the opposite luck as of late.
The Seattle Mariners have now lost eight of their last 11 and desperately need to turn things around quickly as the massively surging Astros have come within three games of their division lead. Making matters worse is that they will open the series with the Orioles against Grayson Rodriguez, who in a limited sample has handled the Mariners well.
Across the 29 combined plate appearances, the Mariners have seen Rodriguez thus far, they've hit just .125 average and have struck out 34.5% of the time. That's good for just three combined hits across the entire roster, and none have been for extra bases.
Plus the Mariners have been one of the league's worst teams against righties this year, batting to the seventh-lowest OPS as a team in 2024 while posting a 28.4% strikeout rate. And while Seattle has George Kirby on the mound tonight, he hasn't had glowing results against the Orioles in his career.
Across a much larger 104 plate appearances, Baltimore has hit him to a .260 average (a high mark in today's game) and a .530 slugging percentage and has only struck out 19.1% of the time - notably lower than his 23.7% rate for his career.
The Orioles are also the league's second-best team against right-handers according to OPS and the third-best team according to wRC+.
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Orioles vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles moneyline
George Kirby Under 7.5 strikeouts
Mitch Garver Under 0.5 hits
Capitalizing on the Orioles' track record of not swinging and missing on Kirby, the Under on his strikeout prop makes a lot of sense.
Combined with the fact that Kirby has only gone over this total for today just once in his last four outings and just three times in his 11 starts since the start of May, there is some solid value there.
And then on the other side of the matchup, we can capitalize on Grayson Rodriguez's proficiency against this lineup by targeting the batter he has had the largest sample size against and the best results against by looking at Mitch Garver as he is a lowly 1-for-7 against Rodriguez in his career and has struck out a whopping four times.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Mariners odds
Orioles vs Mariners live odds
Orioles vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+155) | Seattle 1.5 (-190)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -113 | Seattle +107
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Orioles vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- At home, Seattle has gone 28-14, good for the fourth-best winning percentage in that split this year. However, the Orioles have gone 24-14 on the road this year which is good for the league's best road-winning percentage at 63.2%
- Conversely, the Mariners have gone 46-35-5 to the Under this year, good for a 56.8% rate which is the fourth-highest this season. At home that clip improves to 27-13-2 and a 67.2% rate that isn't second in that split.
- They have also gone 15-10-5 to the Under on totals of seven or less, with tonight's total at that mark.
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Orioles vs Mariners trend
Baltimore is also the league's best Overs team at 44-31-9 (58.7%) and has been even more Over-friendly on the road at 22-13-3 (62.9%). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Mariners
Orioles vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Tuesday, 7-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN2, RSNW |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (9-3, 3.72 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | George Kirby (7-5, 3.55 ERA) |
Orioles vs Mariners latest injuries
Orioles vs Mariners weather
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