Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series between the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres is set for 10 p.m. ET at Petco Park on Tuesday, Sept. 29, and I'm examining the matchup in my Cubs vs. Padres prop picks.
San Diego is a short home favorite, and starter Michael King headlines my top MLB picks for the series opener tonight.
Best Cubs vs Padres props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Michael King Over 4.5 strikeouts |
55% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases |
47% |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases |
45% |
Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Michael King Over 4.5 strikeouts
The bulk of the Chicago Cubs' lineup will be facing San Diego Padres starter Michael King for the first time, and the go-to righty has fanned five-plus batters in four of his past six starts while holding opposing hitters to a minuscule .295 wOBA and 7.0 barrel percentage.
As a result, I’m anticipating King pitching deep enough into the series opener to pick up the five strikeouts needed tonight. Chicago’s strikeout rate climbs to 22.0% against righties on the road, compared to its 20.4% mark at home.
I recommend this prop to 58%.
Prop pick #2: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Padres leadoff man Fernando Tatis Jr. has teed off on lefties to the tune of a .421 wOBA, .273 ISO, 50.0% hard-hit rate, and 24.3% blast contact rate, and he sports a .500 career slugging percentage against Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd.
Boyd also sports a ho-hum 4.52 xERA and 4.45 xFIP against right-handed hitters, so this Tatis prop is in play to 50% in Game 1.
More MLB picks today
Prop pick #3: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases
This is a fair number for the front-runner in the National League MVP odds because Pete Crow-Armstrong has produced an elite .407 wOBA and .322 ISO against right-handed pitchers. And while I expect King to pitch well, his 2.93 ERA in the second half is miles below the hurler's 4.12 xERA and 4.24 xFIP.
As a result, I’d recommend this Crow-Armstrong Over to 50%, because a splash of statistical correction is coming for King in Game 1.
- Prop picks: 8-5, +2.58 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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