Things went from bad to worse for the Toronto Blue Jays in last night’s series opener against the visiting Baltimore Orioles.
Yes, it’s bad the Jays are now 1-6 vs. the Orioles this season and an almost unfathomable 7-21 vs. American League East opponents but worse than that, All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette had to leave the game with knee discomfort following a hard turn at first base.
Toronto will need to refocus quickly if they want to even the series and the Blue Jays hope a familiar face can get the job done. Hyun-jin Ryu makes his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery last June.
With Toronto as a slight home favorite, is the veteran southpaw getting too much respect considering how well Baltimore is playing and the fact he hasn’t pitched in more than a year?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay, in MLB picks and predictions Orioles vs. Blue Jays.
Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions
The Toronto Blue Jays organization and fan base are still holding their collective breath awaiting word on how serious Bo Bichette's knee injury is.
The All-Star shortstop had just tied a franchise record for hits through the month of July, but a hard turn at first and an abrupt halt stopped Bichette in his tracks and he was immediately pulled from the game.
Toronto will likely have to find a way to get the job done without Bichette tonight and that means coming up with a few more clutch hits against Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish.
Bradish is the latest in what seems to be an unending supply of Baltimore starters who are punching above their weight at the moment. The right-hander owns a solid 3.29 ERA but his expected ERA is a much more average 4.13.
On top of that, Bradish is getting hit hard with regularity. His .254 opponent expected batting average ranks in the 31st percentile while ranking in the 19th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.
And even without Bo, this Blue Jays lineup still has plenty of pop. Overall, they rank fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS and seventh in wRC+.
The other big story in this matchup is the return of Hyun-Jin Ryu. The veteran left-hander hasn't pitched since last June after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but if he can be close to the guy he was a couple of years ago he could be very useful to the Jays down the stretch.
That said, despite some promising results in Triple-A, Ryu’s fastball was topping out at 90 mph, and Ryu was seeing some regression prior to his injury. Now, he gets an extremely tough test in his first start in over a year in the Orioles. Baltimore ranks 12th in OPS and 10th in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitching.
I think we’ll see some scoring early on in this one, so I’ll be betting the Over 4.5 in the first five innings tonight.
My best bet: Over 4.5 first five innings (-121 at SPORTS INTERACTION)
Orioles vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Over 4.5 1st five innings
Guerrero Jr. 2+ total bases
Mountcastle 2+ total bases
Our same-game parlay has a theme of runs, and it of course starts with our best bet which is Over 4.5 in the first five innings. Then, let’s add with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to step up in Bo’s absence and collect two or more total bases. Vladdy has six extra-base hits since the All-Star break and is 5-15 with a home run in his career vs. Bradish.
And let’s close it out with the O’s double-man Ryan Mountcastle. Mountcastle has a crazy .996 career OPS vs. the Blue Jays in 46 games. That includes 10 doubles and 15 home runs. He also owns a 1.016 OPS vs. left-handed pitchers this season. These three things cash and we get a +509 payday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as -125 home favorites but it’s the Orioles who have seen the early money moving the game to close to a pick’em. And for good reason.
Despite his inconsistencies, Bradish is at least a known quantity as a starting pitcher in this matchup. It’s really hard to have a feeling for what Toronto can expect out of Ryu tonight. The bullpens looks like a wash, even though Baltimore’s high leverage guys saw a little more use in the opener. And with no Bo for the Jays, the lineups look like a more even matchup as well.
Then when you consider the mental hurdle the Blue Jays have to get over when it comes to AL East opponents, its hard not to have a lean toward the Orioles at this price.
When it come to the total, it hit the board at 8.5 and that’s where it sits as of Tuesday afternoon. As I like the first-five Over I would have a slight lean toward the Over on the full-game total as well. But I would not be as confident in it because of the two elite bullpens in this matchup.
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Trend to know
The Orioles have only hit the Under for the full-game total in 45 of their last 106 games for -13.50 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, August 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, Sportsnet |
Starting pitchers
Kyle Bradish (6-6, 3.29 ERA): The advanced numbers don't love him, but Bradish has completed at least six innings of work in six consecutive starts and limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in five of them.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Ryu makes his first start since last June following Tommy John surgery. The left-hander had two starts at Triple-A Buffalo where he allowed three runs on six hits while striking out 10 over 11 innings.
