MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Thursday, June 25

Friday Junior moneyline MLB picks, quick-hitting insights, and our favorite angles for every game on today's MLB slate, June 25.

MLB moneyline picks for June 25

Matchup	Pick
Royals vs Rays	+127
Mariners vs Pirates	+130
Athletics vs Giants	+122
Astros vs Tigers	+104
Phillies vs Nationals	-170
Rangers vs Blue Jays	-141
Cubs vs Mets	-102
Yankees vs Red Sox	-150
Diamondbacks vs Cardinals	-127

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 6-25.

Trade on the MLB at Polymarket!

Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $50 trading bonus after you deposit $50 to trade on any other event contracts — including MLB moneylines!

Sign Up Now at

*Eligible locations only

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Expert MLB moneyline picks for June 25

Royals vs. Rays: Royals (+127)

Royals win probability: 44%

Seth Lugo may not be the sharpest arm in this Kansas City Royals rotation, but he's been pretty consistent on the road. The right-hander owns a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and is limiting the walks at an insane rate (3.45%). 

I also really like how much hard contact KC has been making during their hot streak offensively. Over their last 21 games, they have consistently maintained a 44% hard-hit rate and 8.3% barrel rate. 

Meanwhile, this Tampa Bay Rays offense has been solid, with a hard-hit rate under 32% over their last 21 games and just a 3.3% barrel rate. I want power; give me the Royals.

Mariners vs. Pirates: Pirates (+130)

Pirates win probability: 44%

Bryce Miller can hold the Rally Rats to one or two runs, and I think that will be enough for them to come out on top this evening. Despite Miller's recent dominance, this Seattle Mariners offense is frozen, kind of like my bets recently. Over their last six games, as a whole just a 41 wRC+, 27% strikeout rate, .223 wOBA, and .092 ISO. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 137 wRC+, .833 OPS, and are producing a near 47% hard-hit rate over their last six. Give me the red-hot offense.

Athletics vs. Giants: Athletics (+122)

Athletics win probability: 45%

Big day for the underdogs, as we're backing three in a row. Why? For starters, I think the Athletics should have had far more runs than they did last night. Nick Kurtz had two outs hit at over 100 MPH, some with guys in scoring position and with super high expected batting averages. 

I think this team is due for a big game, as they're making a ton of hard contact, and I think that is eventually going to turn into runs. Plus, we're getting great value on an offense that can explode at any given time. 

Astros vs. Tigers: Astros (+104)

Astros win probability: 49%

I am riding the hot hand, as the Houston Astros are coming off their fourth series win in a row. Sure, these two teams faced off a few days ago, but we all know how inconsistent the Detroit Tigers are, especially offensively.

Tatsuya Imai has struggled in his most recent starts, but his expected ERA is 2.82 in his last three starts and 3.13 with a 1.18 WHIP in his last five. He has limited barrels and is striking guys out at a much higher rate. Despite his struggles, I think he's worth trusting. 

Phillies vs. Nationals: Phillies (-170)

Phillies win probability: 63%

And the streak ends. How am I supposed to fade Cristopher Sanchez against Cade Cavalli? I am not.

Cavalli enters this matchup with a 6.39 ERA, a 6.66 xERA (yikes), and a 1.66 WHIP across his last three starts. Meanwhile, this Philadelphia Phillies lineup has been scorching hot, posting a 143 wRC+, .873 OPS, and .236 ISO over their last six games while consistently generating hard contact.

This Washington Nationals offense has been a threat all season and is capable of putting runs on the board, but we're backing Mr. Sanchez here. When one of the best pitchers in baseball is on the mound and supported by an offense facing a starter who has allowed a 42% hard-hit rate over his last three outings, I'm more than willing to take my chances with Philadelphia. 

Rangers vs. Blue Jays: Blue Jays (-141)

Blue Jays win probability: 58%

It is as simple as this: I do not trust this Texas Rangers offense right now. Despite what the numbers may say, the eye test has revealed far too many inconsistent at-bats for me to feel comfortable backing them.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore has been a completely different pitcher away from home. In his road starts, he owns a 5.75 ERA and 1.70 WHIP while allowing a 43% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate. Those are not exactly the numbers I am looking to back. Give me the Blue Jays.

Cubs vs. Mets: Cubs (-102)

Cubs win probability: 50%

I'm not getting in the way of one of the hottest offenses in baseball, even if Matthew Boyd's season-long numbers suggest otherwise.

More importantly, we are not going to ignore what Freddy Peralta has looked like lately. Over his last three starts, he owns an 11.20 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Expand that sample to his last five outings, and he's still sitting on a 7.40 ERA with a 1.64 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs have been on an absolute heater. Over their last 21 games, Chicago owns a 124 wRC+, .350 wOBA, and .796 OPS. I am not stepping in front of this offense right now.

Yankees vs. Red Sox: Yankees (-150)

Yankees win probability: 60%

Until Cam Schlittler comes back down to earth, I am not stepping in front of the train. And with how lifeless this Boston Red Sox offense has looked for much of the season, why would I want them to be the team that finally knocks him off?

"Oh, but the rivalry?"

Yeah, because that has been so heated since the Tyler Austin days. Give me another Schlittler masterclass. Yankees.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (-127)

Cardinals win probability: 56%

Real simple and sweet, Zac Gallen has been atrocious. Over his last three starts, he owns a 7.68 ERA, 6.00 xERA, and a 1.84 WHIP.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals roll into this matchup with seven elite-rated hitters on Batters-Box, and that offense has been humming for weeks. Go Birds.

Pages related to this topic