We’ve seen plenty of fireworks between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies over the last couple of days, with the two sides combining to score 26 runs in the past two games.
My Mets vs. Phillies predictions expect the offenses to continue producing, with 50-homer man Kyle Schwarber playing a lead role. Let’s take a closer look at my September 11 MLB picks.
Mets vs Phillies prediction
Mets vs Phillies best bet: Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases (+120)
Kyle Schwarber appears to be heading for another big run at the plate. He has recorded 12 hard-hit balls over the last week, tying him with Cal Raleigh for fifth in the majors during that span.
He’s starting to make great contact consistently. Given his power, production tends to follow when that’s the case.
Schwarber has a tough matchup on paper against David Peterson, who is 9-5 with a 3.72 ERA on the season. It’s not as difficult as it meets the eye — at least considering Peterson’s recent track record.
The veteran lefty has allowed at least four earned runs in four of the past six games. The two exceptions came against Braves and Nationals teams that are struggling to create offense.
Atlanta ranks 27th in wOBA this month, while the Nationals are dead last vs. lefties since August 1. They aren’t stiff competition, to say the least.
The Philadelphia Phillies are a much tougher challenge, and Schwarber is the best bat they have. Expect him to cause problems tonight.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a much higher average — and an ISO .100 points higher — against righties than lefties. He throws a ton of fastballs, and Alonso has a .426 ISO against that pitch when facing a left-handed arm.
The offenses as a whole are appealing. Peterson is giving up a lot of runs right now, while Luzardo has allowed an average of 3.3 per game over his last 10 home starts.
Mets vs Phillies SGP
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases
- Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases
- Over 8.5
Mets vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: New York +125 | Philadelphia -150
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-165) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mets vs Phillies trend
Kyle Schwarber has averaged 2.4 total bases at home this season, well above his road average of 1.8. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
How to watch Mets vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Thursday, September 11, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (9-5, 3.72 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (13-6, 4.01 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets vs Phillies weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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