The Milwaukee Brewers hope to bounce back on Saturday in the second game of their series against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates.
They were nearly the victim of a Paul Skenes perfect game last night, but our MLB odds have them favored to continue Pittsburgh’s 15-game streak of alternating victories with defeats.
Here are my Pirates vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for the side and total for Saturday, April 25.
Who will win Pirates vs Brewers today: Brewers (-134)
Jacob Misiorowski has shown some nasty stuff to start the season.
He ranks in the 98th percentile in fastball velocity, whiff rate, and strikeout rate.
Add in an extension that sits in the 99th percentile, and it’s problematic for a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has the seventh-highest whiff rate in the majors. The Pirates also chase a fair amount, but have the fifth-lowest chase contact rate.
Mitch Keller is outperforming his xERA and xFIP by nearly a full run. He’s facing a serious platoon disadvantage, and his command issues will be exploited by a Milwaukee Brewers lineup ranked second in walk rate.
COVERS INTEL: Jacob Misiorowski has generated a 43.6% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball, up from 32.5% a season ago.
Pirates vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-133)
While I expect the Brewers to get to Keller, I am not expecting a high-run output. Milwaukee ranks fourth-worst in both ISO and xwOBA, and third-worst in xwOBAcon.
The Brewers have made up for that by drawing walks and ranking fifth in generating runs on the basepaths. Even so, I can’t see them posting a big number.
Misiorowski’s biggest issue has been home runs, but the Pirates rank just 20th in ISO.
Both bullpens rank in the top half of the league in xFIP and are rested after yesterday’s game. They’ll limit damage in the late innings to push this total Under.
- ML/RL bets: 1-3, -2.23 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-0, +4.08 units
Pirates vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Pirates +122 | Brewers -127
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 (-178) | Brewers +1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)
Pirates vs Brewers trend
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.25 Units / 31% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Brewers.
How to watch Pirates vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Saturday, April-25, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (2-1, 2.79 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (1-3, 3.04 ERA) |
Pirates vs Brewers latest injuries
Pirates vs Brewers weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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