Mets vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Walker Stays Dominant on Home Soil

The New York Mets travel to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies tonight in the first of a three-game set. Taijaun Walker and the home side sit as slight -120 home favorites vs. Kodai Senga and the Mets, who have lost six consecutive series and are 4-13 SU over that stretch. 

With Taijuan Walker on a tear recently — and some possible rain projected — should bettors be looking at the Phillies in the first five innings despite the Mets dominating the head-to-head meetings?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Phillies on Friday, June 23.

Mets vs Phillies odds

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Mets vs Phillies predictions

Sadly, at the time of writing, there were no outs recorded props available for the starting pitchers, but that isn’t a big deal as I see the Philadelphia Phillies as the side tonight to back.

The New York Mets have been one of the most overvalued teams in baseball this season, losing straight moneyline bettors nearly 20 units and playing to a 4-13 record over their last six series. They did sweep the Phillies back in late May at home, but the market is moving to the home side tonight and I’m following suit.

Kodai Senga went seven innings of one-hit ball with nine punchouts vs. the Phillies five starts ago, but it’s been a mixed bag since and the Mets are giving him an extra day of rest now between starts as the rookie is trying to adjust to a more grinding MLB schedule. His numbers aren’t dipping, but the Phillies will have an edge seeing him a second time over a short period of time.

The biggest edge is the recent play of right-hander Taijuan Walker. 

The Philly hurler is on a tear over his last four starts with a 1.50 ERA while holding opposing batters to a .157 batting average. He’s allowed exactly two hits in three of his last four starts, including a two-hit outing vs. the Mets in a 2-0 loss as a +170 road dog vs. Max Scherzer.   

Walker has also been a much better pitcher at home with an ERA 3.5 points lower at Citizen’s Bank Park despite some decent offenses coming to town, including the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mariners. He’s allowed just 14 hits over 27 1/3 innings at home this season.

There is some rain in the forecast with the Covers’ weather page projecting roughly 70% of precipitation. If there is some rain, I think it would be more of an issue with Senga, who is reliant on that splitter/forkball combo that has a 57.1 K% and ranks in the Top 25 in that metric among all pitches in baseball. That pitch needs a better grip and, if it doesn’t move as much, turns into a meatball that also doesn’t play well with a decent wind blowing out. 

I’m happy to take the home side on the first 5 ML at -120 as I’d like to avoid any potential late rain delays that could dig into the projected advantage the Phillies have in starting pitching.

My best bet: Phillies first 5 ML (-120 at Pinnacle) 

Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay

Phillies moneyline (-120)

Kodai Senga Under 6.5 strikeouts (-150)

Under 8.5 (+130)

+575 at bet365

I'm backing the Phillies tonight as I'm seeing them with the better starting pitching. Even in the later innings, Mets relievers are sitting 29th in WAR on the season. This Philly offense just saw Senga less than three weeks ago and if there is some rain, it could hurt his strikeout pitch in his splitter/forkball due to its high surface-area grip.

I could also see this game looking a lot like the last series, which didn't produce much offense. Both starting pitchers were solid in those meetings, combining for just three hits allowed and the Under went a sweatless 3-0. These are two of the most underperforming offenses in baseball. 

The true odds are +600 so losing 25 points is fin when the Under and ML play correlate to the K prop. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mets vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Phillies opened at -115 and have moved as short as -125. Philadelphia is also a little shorter on the F5 ML, showing a slight advantage in the starting pitching matchup. 

The total has moved from 9 to 9.5 despite a pair of underperforming offenses and some possibilities of rain. There is a 9-mph wind blowing out with near-80-degree temperatures, but it’s tough to get excited about runs with these two offenses — especially when the last series went 3-0 to the Under less than 30 days ago.

Walker has been elite of late and batters are not picking him up well. He has been even more stifling at home, especially in the H/9 department, where he has allowed just 14 hits at home over 27-plus innings. He also held this offense to just two hits in back on June 1. 

Senga held the Phillies to one hit and no runs in his start in that previous series and although the home side should adjust to the rookie more a second time around, it’s still an offense that has struggled to score of late with 24 runs over its last seven games and a four-game stretch failing to score more than three runs. 

The Mets have dominated the head-to-head, winning 17 of the last 21 meetings but I think overvaluing H2H matchups over a long length of time can be misleading data that has a ton of noise. 

The risk of rain worries me about the Phillies on the full-game ML and the five-point difference on the F5 ML indicates the slight advantage the home side has with starting pitching. I prefer the F5 ML with Phillies at -120/-125 and think the Under 9.5 is the correct side when we look at the weather, the struggling offenses, and a pair of clubs that have been profitable to the Under on the season. 

Trend to know

The Under is 6-0-1 in the Phillies’ last seven overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies

Mets vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Kodai Senga (6-4, 3.53 ERA): Senga has struggled with consistency this season and hasn’t recorded back-to-back quality starts all season — 13 starts. He’s pitching on six days of rest for the second straight start and brings an 87:41 K/BB ratio over 71 1/3 innings with a 15% HR/FB rate and a 47% groundball rate. The Mets are 8-5 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 90 pitches, 14.9 outs, 5.35 strikeouts, and 3.11 earned runs. 

Taijuan Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA): Walker is in a groove and pitching to a 1.50 ERA over his last starts where he’s allowed just 13 hits over 24 innings. Batters are hitting just .157 off of Walker over four June starts and he’s coming off his first 100-pitch game. He has a 1.98 ERA at home and the Phillies are 10-5 when he pitches. THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 16.1 outs, 4.29 strikeouts, and 2.80 earned runs. 

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