The New York Mets have the best record in the National League at 38-19, with only the Yankees (39-15) having a better record overall.
New York has won eight of its last ten games and looks to stay hot against the San Diego Padres (33-22), who are second in the NL West — 2.5 games back of the Dodgers. They've stumbled lately, going just 4-6 over their last ten games, including an 11-5 loss in Game 1 of this series.
Check out our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Mets vs. Padres on Tuesday, June 7.
Mets vs Padres odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Padres opened at -121, but the line has moved in the home team’s direction and can currently be had between -124 and -132 depending on the book. The total opened at 7.5 and has not moved.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Padres predictions
Picks made on 6/7/2022 at 9:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Tuesday, June 7, 2022
• First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
• TV: SNY, Bally Sports San Diego
Mets vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (3-1, 2.88 ERA): Walker’s 2.88 ERA is down from his career mark of 3.92. So, is it luck or is it improvement? Considering his xERA is way up at 4.38, we’re dubious the success will continue. His 3.70 FIP is alright, but a 4.50 xFIP points toward negative regression. He isn’t striking any batters out, averaging 4.65 strikeouts per 9 innings, and his 6.0% barrel rate isn’t great, either.
Yu Darvish (4-3, 4.03 ERA): This is Darvish’s second year in San Diego and it’s also the second time his ERA has been above four. That’s probably not what the Padres bargained for when they shelled out a 6-year, $126 million contract following his excellent 2020 season with the Cubs (8-3, 2.01 ERA). His 3.96 xERA is alright, but his 3.47 FIP is better (although a 4.05 xFIP doesn’t help). His 5.3% barrel rate isn’t spectacular and he’s striking out three batters fewer per nine innings than he was a year ago.
Weather
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Key injuries
Mets: James McCann C (Out), Travis Jankowski RF (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), Sean Reid-Foley RP (Out), John Curtiss RP (Out).
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Wil Myers LF (Out), Matt Beaty 1B (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Pierce Johnson RP (Out), Austin Adams RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the Mets’ last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres
Mets vs Padres picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Yu Darvish’s profile is not great this season. His peripherals are mostly in line with Walker, who has settled into being a decent innings eater for the Mets. Darvish isn’t striking out as many batters as he used to (7.16 per 9 innings, down from 10.77 a year ago) and his 5.3% barrel rate is not a strong indicator of success going forward.
I still have to give San Diego the starting pitching edge, however. Walker’s 4.38 xERA and 6% barrel rate indicate that he’s due for some major regression, and soon.
The Mets lineup ranks second in OPS, second in wOBA, first in wRC+, and 18th in ISO. They do pretty much everything great except hit for power. On the season, the Padres rank 24th in OPS, 24th in wOBA, 22nd in wRC+, and 25th in ISO.
Recent form hasn’t been much different than the season-long numbers, as the Mets rank third in wRC+ over the last ten days while the Padres rank 23rd.
The numbers don’t lie. There’s a significant lineup advantage with the Mets. They’ve been red hot, too, winning eight of their last ten games. Darvish is still viewed by some as an elite starting pitcher, but the recent evidence doesn’t point in that direction and I’m trusting the statistics.
Give me the Mets to add to their National League-best record.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (+112 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
I’m not a huge believer in either starting pitcher in their current form. Darvish has a 5.3% barrel rate and Walker’s sits at 6%, so both are liable to give up some hard contact.
The Mets rank within the top three in basically every metric I look at(i.e. wOBA, wRC+, OPS). They do lag behind in ISO (18th), but you can’t knock them too much for that when they’re still scoring runs and winning ball games. This lineup has figured it out this season and they’re a constant threat to put up a crooked number — just ask San Diego, who allowed 11 runs to them yesterday.
The Padres lineup does lag behind the Mets in most statistical categories. They seem to be missing Fernando Tatis Jr.’s presence in the lineup, and being without Wil Myers doesn’t help, either. Taijaun Walker’s statistical profile screams for regression, and the Padres don’t need to be world beaters to plate a few runs against a pitcher that doesn’t strike anyone out and allows a ton of hard contact.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Best bet
While I believe there’s value in the underdog with the Mets, I can’t trust them on the moneyline as the best bet when Walker is on the mound. His 4.38 xERA and 6% barrel rate paint the picture that he’ll be allowing more runs in future starts, and that could start as early as tonight.
I’ll be targeting the total with my best bet. Check any advanced metric you like, and they’ll all tell you that Darvish has regressed significantly in 2022. There’s still time for him to figure it out this season, but facing one of the league’s top lineups isn’t the remedy.
Both teams should be able to plate runs here, so I’m playing the Over as my best bet.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
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