On Tuesday, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox begin a three-game series in Chicago. It's a matchup of two teams expected to be strong contenders and two teams that have struggled lately.
L.A. is 5-5 in its ten games and just lost a series to the New York Mets. Consequently, the Padres have shrunk a once sizable gap to first in the NL West to 2.5 games. It arrives today with a 35-19 record.
It would be fair to categorize the Sox start as an outright disappointment. Chicago has a losing record of 25-27, and is five games out of first place in the AL Central. The pitching hasn't been good enough, and the offense has been too inconsistent. However, it'll look to get things moving in a positive direction.
Find out who wins in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. White Sox on Tuesday, June 7.
Dodgers vs White Sox odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The odds for this meeting were released last night. Los Angeles opened up as a -130 favorite, but the White Sox have seen sharp action since then. The Dodgers have fallen to as low as -115 in some spots, with the White Sox returning at +105. The total opened up at 8.5 and has stayed there.
Dodgers vs White Sox predictions
Picks made on 6/7/2022 at 1:42 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Dodgers vs White Sox game info
• Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Tuesday, June 7, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet LA, NBC Sports Chicago
Dodgers vs White Sox betting preview
Mitch White (1-1, 4.79 ERA): Some of the numbers may not show it, but I think White has been unlucky this season. He does a great job limiting hard contact with a hard-hit rate in the Top 25% of active pitchers. When teams make hard contact, they usually leave the park and go for extra-base hits. His barrel rate is evidence of this. However, White has given up a home run in five of his last six games, and overall, the longball has been his most significant issue. White went five innings and surrendered three earned runs to Pittsburgh in his previous start.
Michael Kopech (1-2, 2.20 ERA): Kopech has been a pleasant revelation for the White Sox, as he was simply spectacular in May. Kopech saw 23 innings of work and only gave up three earned runs. That's an elite month of pitching and something Chicago has desperately needed. Is it sustainable? Well, that's the big question. This is easily the best start to his career Kopech has had. Last season he was due for positive regression that he never got until now. Unfortunately, his start is due for some negative regression based on the peripherals. Will it come?
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw SP (Out), Dustin May SP (Out), Max Muncy 1B (Out), Kevin Pillar CF (Out).
White Sox: Lance Lynn SP (Out), Tim Anderson SS (Out), Eloy Jimenez LF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Dodgers are 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. White Sox
Dodgers vs White Sox picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Quite honestly, you can be profitable blindly betting against the Dodgers, given how much the public overvalues them on a night-to-night basis. That angle would have been even particularly advantageous as of late. They've struggled, and heavily bet pitchers like Walker Buehler have been the root of their issues. That being said, today feels like a bit of an over adjustment. L.A. has significant trends and pitching edge, and I'll be backing them today.
I believe that the Dodgers have an excellent pitching edge on the mound today, and I think my projections have found a nice edge vs. what books are listing. The Dodgers have also had great success against Chicago in recent matchups, winning the last four contests.
You seemingly see this every year with this group. They get overbet; They win and get overbet some more. Then they fall into a slump, and suddenly it becomes a trendy thing to fade the Dodgers. I think it's being overblown in this spot because history tells you they thrive here.
Now, to the pitching matchup. There's no denying that Kopech just pieced together an incredible month at the mound. I'd argue he didn't get enough attention for just how good he was. But he was also a bit lucky.
His expected ERA is over an entire run higher than his actual ERA, and he's coming off his worst start of the year against the Blue Jays — hammering him for five earned runs in three innings. Strangely enough, that came against the second-best exit velocity team in baseball — a place Kopech has struggles and a place where the Dodgers thrive.
My projections are still bullish on the Dodgers, even against public and robust favoritism. They suggest the fair price for L.A. is around -135. I like my edge, and I like this spot for Los Angeles to remind people it's still a talented team.
Prediction: Dodgers moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
This is a side that I'm not sure I have the strongest of opinions on, but history suggests the Over is the way to go, so I'm going with that.
This is a story of one pitcher who has been due for some negative regression and has started pitching to that proper form in White. And then, on the flip side, a pitcher that is almost certainly due for negative regression with a team full of lethal hitters at the plate to help deliver that. So, more than any number, that alone makes me think this has a good chance of going Over. But aside from that, the trends are in our favor once again.
The Over is 6-1 in Chicago's last seven games, as well as 6-1 in the last seven games these two teams have played at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Sometimes when you don't have a substantial handicap on a side, trusting the trends is as good as anything. Sometimes it's also nice to look to the weather for confirmation, but there's not a ton there. While it will be a cooler night in Chicago, it will still be reasonably humid. I'd expect that to outweigh any adverse effects the cooler temperatures may have on the ball carry. Consider it a wash.
My projections don't see much of an edge here. They essentially view this number as spot-on, with the game going over the posted total 51% of the time. So I'll lean on the trends here and roll with the Over.
Prediction: Over 8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
I've talked a great deal about why I feel Kopech's start is slightly a bit of fools gold. That conversation always falls back to his exit velocity and his issues with it against hitters.
He ranks in the bottom third of pitchers in that category. So let's pick on him by taking a prop on the Dodger with the best exit velocity on the Dodgers — Trea Turner.
Turner is one of my favorite hitters in baseball because of his consistency. He has a hit in over 83% of L.A.'s games, and is third in the league in RBI. He's seen a few pitchers so far that hang around the exit velocity area that Kopech does. The latest was Humberto Castellanos of Arizona. Turner saw him twice and hit him twice, including one for a triple.
You can rarely look at many players and make grand assessments for how they fared against one pitcher being the same against another with similar stats. But Turner may be an exception. His consistency makes him such a valuable asset for Los Angeles, and I'll back that consistency today.
Pick: Trea Turner Over 1.5 total bases (+104)
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