Mets vs Nationals Picks and Predictions: Backing Uncertain Pitching Matchup to Stay Under

Even without an announced starting pitcher, the Mets are favored and for good reason, but the uncertainty at the mound has us targeting the Under. Find out why in our Mets vs. Nationals MLB betting picks and predictions below.

Last Updated: May 10, 2022 2:57 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Pete Alonso New York Mets MLB
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The New York Mets (20-10) head to Washington, DC, for a three-game series with the Washington Nationals (10-20).

The Mets have been one of the best teams in the majors through 30 games. They’re tied with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels for the most wins in the MLB.

The Nationals reside in the NL East basement and have a -30 run differential.

Will the Mets continue their winning ways, or will the Nationals play spoiler to open the series? Read our MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Nationals to find out. 

Mets vs Nationals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Mets opened -149, but they have been bet up to -172 to -190 depending on the book at current. The total has been set at 8.5 across all books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Nationals predictions

Picks made on 5/10/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Nationals game info

Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

Mets vs Nationals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Mets Starting Pitcher: TBD

Patrick Corbin (0-5, 7.16 ERA): No, that’s not a typo — Corbin has an ERA above 7 on the season. Across seven woeful starts in 2022, the veteran left-hander has found little success, allowing a .385 OBP. He did put forth a solid showing in his last start, tossing eight strong innings while allowing only three earned against the Colorado Rockies. He’s been trending in the wrong direction for a while now, as his ERA has steadily been on the rise since the 2019 season. A year ago, he went 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA across 171 2-3 innings. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Mets: Sean Reid-Foley RP (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), John Curtiss RP (Out).
Nationals: Carter Kieboom 3B (Out), Ehire Adrianza 3B (Out), Sean Doolittle RP (Out), Hunter Harvey RP (Out), Will Harris RP (Out), Seth Romero RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals

Mets vs Nationals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets have been established as clear betting favorites despite having yet to announce a starting pitcher. That’s as much of a mark of the Mets’ superiority as it is an indictment on Corbin and this Nationals lineup.

We don’t need to know who the starting pitcher is to know that he’s probably held in higher esteem than Corbin. His 5.82 ERA a season ago was ugly, and his 5.62 xERA indicates that it wasn’t due to a lot of bad luck. He has primarily struggled with walks, accumulating a 4.23 BB/9 ratio on the season.

The Mets have the lineup advantage. New York ranks sixth in the MLB in runs per game, averaging 4.53 runs per contest. The advanced stats like this lineup, as they rank third in wOBA and fifth in wRC+. It’s a deep and talented lineup.

Washington, meanwhile, ranks 13th with 4.17 runs per game. The advanced stats aren’t quite as kind to them, as they rank 15th in wOBA and 19th in wRC+.

Washington has been a money-burner for bettors at home this season, going a woeful 3-11 straight up. The Mets, meanwhile, have been more than competent on the road (11-5 away from home).

Even without knowing the starting pitcher, we have to lean toward the Mets. They’re the better team and get a favorable matchup against Corbin.

There’s a reason the Mets are at the top of the NL East standings while the Nationals are at the bottom. The market has established the Mets as the favorite and we agree.

Prediction: Mets moneyline (-164 at WynnBET)

Over/Under analysis

It’s difficult to recommend a play on the Under when Corbin is one of the starting pitchers, but we are looking in that direction for a few different reasons.

The Mets haven’t exactly mashed left-handers this year, ranking 20th in MLB with a .217 batting average against southpaws. They’ve managed just five home runs against lefties all season.

Corbin’s stats may be off-putting, but it’s worth noting that his 4.88 xERA this season indicates that he may have been a tad unlucky. Walks are the big issue, but if Corbin can avoid issuing too many free passes then he’s actually in a decent spot at home.

The Mets have a solid bullpen and a team ERA of just 3.24, good for fifth-best. 

The weather is more partial toward the Under, as winds of 10 mph will be blowing in toward home plate by first pitch.

Prediction: Under 8.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

Best bet

There’s a lot of uncertainty in the handicap of this matchup because the Mets do not have a clear starting pitcher lined up. For that reason, we will be laying off the moneyline for our best bet and will instead target the total.

Corbin has been brutal to start 2022, but his xERA is below 5 and indicates that he may be due for some positive regression. His last start was an indication that perhaps he’s turning a corner. The Mets have not hit lefties well this season and the wind will be blowing toward home plate at 10 mph.

The Mets have a solid bullpen and there’s a reason they rank within the Top 5 in team ERA. This Nationals lineup is not one to be afraid of and we believe this should be a low-scoring affair. Give us the Under.

PickUnder 8.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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