Red Sox vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Alex Verdugo Finds Boston's Mojo in Atlanta

The Red Sox haven't found their footing, but with Garrett Whitlock on the hill in Atlanta, it's a good time to break out. Outfielder Alex Verdugo is primed for a big game and, despite his struggles, has historically crushed righties. We're backing Boston.

Zachary Cohen - Contributor at
May 10, 2022 • 09:22 ET • 4 min read
Alex Verdugo Boston Red Sox MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Boston Red Sox will be hoping to snap their five-game losing streak when they take on the Atlanta Braves on Tuesday. This match-up will feature two young pitchers off to impressive starts this season, so it should be a fun battle on the mound. 

Will Boston find its way back in the win column? Check out our MLB betting picks and predictions to find out. 

Red Sox vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Red Sox opened as +122 underdogs and can still be had at that number on one sportsbook. However, the number is also down as low as +110 on another, and it looks like it could keep shrinking. 

As for the total, the number opened at 7.5 and got up to 8 on one sportsbook. But all others have it at 7.5 at the time of this writing, with there being a little juice on the Over.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Red Sox vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 5/10/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Red Sox vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Southeast, NESN

Red Sox vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 1.25 ERA): Whitlock is coming off a game in which he threw five innings of two-run ball and struck out nine batters in what was ultimately a 10-5 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. The righty has allowed only those two earned runs over his last 12 innings on the hill — which spans over three outings — and he has struck out 18 batters in that span. He looks like he could be a mainstay in the rotation. 

Kyle Wright (3-1, 1.74 ERA): Wright has allowed only six earned runs in 31 innings this season, and he has racked up at least eight strikeouts in three of his five outings. The 26-year-old showed great poise in his most recent start against the New York Mets, giving up only three runs despite nine hits. Wright has everything teams look for in a future ace. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Red Sox: Michael Wacha P (Out), Rich Hill P (Out), Jonathan Arauz SS (Out), Josh Taylor P (Out), Chris Sale P (Out).
Braves: Manny Pina C (Out), Eddie Rosario OF (Out), Luke Jackson P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 20-8-1 in Red Sox games this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Braves

Red Sox vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Red Sox have had trouble finding their stride early in the season. This two-game series against the Braves could ultimately be a launching-off point for Boston, especially with the team getting to face a righty — albeit a good one — in the opener. 

Alex Verdugo is one of the Red Sox players who hasn’t been able to get his bat going, and he generally rakes against right-handed pitching. Last year, Verdugo hit .321 with 11 homers and 51 RBI against righties. This year, he’s batting only .205 against them. Verdugo is clearly due, and it wouldn’t be surprising if it were to get back on track today. 

And it's not like an increase in strikeouts has been the culprit as Verdugo's striking out in a career-low 11.4% of his plate appearances. His .207 batting average on balls in play is a significant drop, which speaks to some of the bad fortune he's encountered thus far.

Guys like Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and J.D. Martinez are all good against righties — and most hurlers, really. Wright is a tough match-up for anybody right now, but this lineup has the bats it needs to get a few runs against anyone — even if it might not seem like it at the moment. 

The Red Sox are also going to feel pretty good about having Whitlock toeing the rubber. The 25-year-old has flashed some serious swing-and-miss stuff this year, and the Braves have the ninth-highest strikeout rate in the league against righties. With that said, Whitlock will be looking forward to attacking this lineup and he has what it takes to win the battle on the hill against his counterpart. 

Prediction: Red Sox moneyline (+122 WynnBet)

Over/Under analysis

Almost every single sportsbook has lowered this number to 7.5, but FanDuel was hanging it out there at 8 at the time of this writing. You’ll want to grab the Under there so that you can at least push on eight. However, if you absolutely need to take it at 7.5, you shouldn’t hesitate. 

This game features two exciting young pitchers who are off to excellent starts. While one of them will ultimately end up getting in some trouble here, it’s hard to see these teams combining to score a lot of runs with them on the mound. Not only are they both outside the Top 10 in runs scored this season, but neither lineup has gotten to see the opposing starter. That means the first few innings here could be of the low-scoring variety, especially with scoring down league-wide.

The Under is also 20-8-1 in Boston’s 29 games this season, and it’s 21-10 when the Braves are coming off a day off since the start of last season. 

Prediction: Under 8 (-120 at FanDuel)

Best bet

Alex Verdugo is too good of a hitter to be batting .212 this season. The 25-year-old has hit at least .289 in each of the previous three seasons and has always been a reliable on-base player. With that in mind, the outfielder is going to snap out of his funk soon, and he’s going to go big when he does. 

Verdugo hasn’t had a two-hit game since April 22. Why not take a shot on him breaking out against a righty here? Verdugo has always crushed right-handed pitchers, and the odds of him having a multi-hit game are enticing. This might be something of a long shot, but it’s definitely worth a small play. 

Pick: Alex Verdugo to record 2+ hits (+210 at FanDuel)

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