Mets vs Cubs Predictions, Picks, Odds: Stroman Keeps Cooking Against NY

The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets at Wrigley Field on Wednesday night. Chicago hammered the Mets 7-2 last night to snap New York's five-game winning streak.

The Mets were originally supposed to start highly-regarded rookie Kodai Senga yesterday but pushed his start to today, while the Cubs will respond with veteran Marcus Stroman.

MLB odds opened with Chicago as a slim -120 home favorite for today with the Over/Under at just 6.5. Here are my best free Mets vs. Cubs MLB picks for May 24. 

Mets vs Cubs odds

Mets vs Cubs predictions

The Chicago Cubs are sending the reliable Marcus Stroman and his 3.05 ERA to the hill. Stroman has logged at least six innings in eight of 10 starts this season, and in the two outings where he went below that number, he was lit up causing him to get an early hook. 

There are plenty of reasons to think that Stroman won't be lit up today. The O/U on his earned runs total is set at 2.5 and heavily juiced towards the Under at -180 for an implied probability of 64.3%.

The New York Mets are 24th in the majors with 2.76 runs per game through the first six innings and have been heavily reliant on long balls from Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor to generate scoring. Stroman does an excellent job of inducing ground balls and the fly balls he does allow today could get swallowed up by the strong wind blowing infield at Wrigley. 

Expect Stroman to put together another solid start today leading to him going Over 17.5 on his outs total. 

My best bet: Marcus Stroman Over 17.5 outs (-120)

Mets vs Cubs moneyline analysis

The Mets had a five-game winning streak snapped last night but remain one game above .500. Despite the Cubs' victory last night, they have gone just 2-7 in their last nine games and are currently five games below .500. 

New York is sending rookie Kodai Senga to the mound, and while the former Japanese league star is flashing vast potential, he has still been hittable. He has surrendered at least four runs in three of his last six starts and his poor control can get him in trouble with 18 walks issued through 26 innings.

However, Senga does an excellent job of making batters miss and he's coming off a gem against the Rays where he allowed one run and fanned 12 batters across six innings. Chicago is responding with Stroman who is in the Top 10th percentile of all pitchers in barrel rate. The veteran right hander is limiting opponents to a batting average of .211 while pitching to a 1.14 WHIP.

The Mets are a modest 17th in the majors with an OPS of .713, but they have a dangerous lineup anchored by Alonso (18 homers in 49 games) and Lindor (seven homers and 15 doubles),

The Cubs are sixth in the majors with an OPS of .769 with Patrick Wisdom leading the way with 12 dingers. Cody Bellinger had been enjoying a bounce-back season slashing .271/.337/.493 through 37 games but is sidelined until June with a knee injury. 

Mets vs Cubs Over/Under analysis

While both of today's starters have been solid, this total of 6.5 looks a bit too low. Especially since neither side has been terrible at the dish with the Mets averaging 4.27 runs per game and the Cubs plating 4.83.

New York has seen only two totals this month lower than 8.0 with both of those at 7.5. Those contests took place on Sunday in a doubleheader against Cleveland's ugly offense and featured aces like Justin Verlander, Shane Bieber, and Max Scherzer.

Likewise, the Cubbies haven't seen a total lower than 7.5 in more than a month with Stroman's starts typically coming in the 7.5-8.5 range. 

Of course with this game taking place at Wrigley Field, wind is always a factor to consider and there is a brisk 19.5 mph breeze blowing in towards the infield, likely deflating this number. 

Mets vs Cubs game info

Starting pitchers

Kodai Senga (4-2, 3.77 ERA): A superstar pitcher over in Japan, Senga is showing plenty of promise in his first year in the majors. His impressive four seamer averages 95.9 mph with a high spin rate, but his best pitch is the forkball which opponents are batting just .114 against. 

Marcus Stroman (3-4, 3.05 ERA): The former All-Star is the last of a dying breed: a diminutive starter that rarely makes batters miss, but induces poor contact and forces ground balls. Stroman has been extremely consistent over the last three years, posting a combined 3.20 ERA while pitching to an almost identical 1.15 WHIP in each season. 

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Mets are 9-23 in the last 32 meetings between these teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs

Weather

Pages related to this topic