It will be a battle of division leaders at Busch Stadium on Monday night as the New York Mets — presently pacing the NL East — take on the St. Louis Cardinals, the current kings of the NL Central.
The Mets have the most wins of any MLB team at the moment (12) and have yet to lose a series this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have won six of their last nine.
Both teams are hot, but only one club can keep on rolling in this spot. Which will it be? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs Cardinals on Monday, April 25.
Mets vs Cardinals odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as consensus -144 favorites on the road, and most sportsbooks have since raised that number by 10 to 15 cents.
The consensus opening total was 7.0, but action on the Under has caused 6.5 to appear at many sites.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Mets vs Cardinals predictions
Picks made on 4/25/2022 at 11:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Mets vs Cardinals game info
• Location: Busch Stadium, St, Louis, MI
• Date: Monday, April 25, 2022
• First pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Mets vs Cardinals betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (2-0, 3.27 ERA): Mets fans have to like what they’ve seen so far from offseason acquisition Scherzer. “Mad Max” has won each of his first three outings of 2022, pitching to a 2.50 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He’s struck out 23 batters while walking only seven to this point.
Miles Mikolas (1-0, 2.61 ERA): After running a high pitch count and failing to finish the fourth inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates in his season debut, Mikolas has since regained his composure on the mound.
Mikolas has allowed only one earned run over his last 11 2-3 innings of work, striking out 12 while issuing only one base on balls. The Florida native has a 2.72 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Busch Stadium for his career.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Sean Reid-Foley RP (Questionable), Taijuan Walker (Out).
Cardinals: Drew VerHagen RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Cardinals are 10-2 in their last 12 during Game 1 of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals
Mets vs Cardinals picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline/Run line analysis
In a game that profiles as a pitcher's duel, bettors should side with the home underdog.
Scherzer is always a tough nut to crack, but the Cardinals have some batters who can scratch across a few runs. Tommy Edman is 4-for-9 (.417) lifetime against “Mad Max” with a homer, while Paul DeJong is 4-for-13 (.308) with three RBI.
Edman only just dropped below the 1.000 OPS threshold on the year (.963) after taking an 0-for-4 against the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday. DeJong is off to a dreadful start in 2022 (.139 average), but has owned the Mets in his six-year career. Since 2017, he’s hitting .347 against Mets pitching with 10 homers and 17 RBI.
Nolan Arenado is a modest 2-for-10 lifetime against Scherzer, but he’s off to such a torrid beginning at the dish (1.154 OPS, second in the majors) that he figures to give the three-time Cy Young Award winner all he can handle. Be warned, however, that these are relatively small sample sizes.
Mikolas has only nine career innings under his belt against New York, but he was practically untouchable in that sample, producing a .129 opponent batting average. He’s not just had the number of longtime Mets like Pete Alonso (0-for-4), Brandon Nimmo (0-for-3), and J.D. Davis (0-for-3), but even new faces like Starling Marte (5-for-32), Eduardo Escobar (0-for-6), and Travis Jankowski (0-for-6).
Granted, Marte is the only player in that cohort against whom he has a wealth of experience but when Mikolas is on, he induces soft contact and pitches to the margins, limiting barrels and damage.
Considering Mikolas has a 168-35 strikeout/walk ratio at Busch Stadium in his career, it’s hard to envision the Mets generating much traffic on the bases.
The trends favor St. Louis as well, as the Redbirds are 7-1 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and 5-1 in their last six games as a home underdog. The Mets are 11-30 in their last 41 games against teams with winning records.
Prediction: Cardinals ML (+145 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
Not only do the Mets and Cardinals have the starters capable of combining for an Under, but they have the bullpens as well.
St. Louis’ relief corps ranks second for the season by ERA (1.95), and seventh over the last week (1.66). Giovanny Gallegos (four saves) has been a lockdown closer for manager Oliver Marmol, and bridging the gap to him has been easy with arms like Kodi Whitley and Ryan Helsley combining for nine scoreless appearances so far.
The Mets are just 15th in bullpen ERA on the year (3.26), but this unit has rounded into form over the last week, authoring a 1.96 ERA to make up for an uneven start.
Drew Smith has been a revelation for New York, starting the season with seven straight scoreless appearances (seven innings). Free-agent signing Adam Ottavino has allowed only one run over his first six outings, and former Yankees southpaw Joely Rodriguez has shut out the opposition over his last three chances.
Under bettors should note that the Mets have a 10-24-1 Over/Under record in their last 35 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous affair. New York is also 17-8-2 to the Under in its last 27 road games. The Under has cashed in six straight games involving the Cardinals.
Prediction: Under 7.0 (-130 at WynnBET)
Best bet
Though the Mets have dropped 10 of their last 13 games with the Cardinals, Scherzer gives them more than a fighting chance of winning this one. That’s why the best available play in this matchup is the St. Louis run line, available at a more than fair price.
Runs will be a precious commodity in this one for all the reasons we listed above. As long as Mikolas and the Redbirds bullpen stay true to form, it’s hard to envision New York running away with this one on the road.
If the Cardinals do not win on Monday night, they will at least keep it close.
Pick: Cardinals +1.5 runs (-120 at Caesars)
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