MLB Picks

I’m going four-digit hunting with the No. 2 hitter in the Miami Marlins lineup in a controlled environment with a plus-plus matchup. Kyle Leahy has the second-worst Blast Contact% among MLB starters this year, and it caught up to him last time out when Houston took him deep three times indoors. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, he ranks dead last in BlastCon%. Miami isn’t known for home-run power, but Otto Lopez stands out at a massive price. He’s being priced like a No. 8 hitter with no pop, but he’s among the team leaders in power metrics and sits well above league average in key home-run indicators. This may be the best pitching matchup for dingers on the board. The St. Louis Cardinals could also be without key bullpen arms, and they already rank 29th in xFIP among all MLB bullpens, adding to the appeal.

Wacha may be outperforming his metrics, but his 23.5% strikeout rate and 33% chase rate are legitimate, and Baltimore's lineup punches out 25% of the time against right-handers. 

Kansas City's bullpen may be a disaster, but they won't be tested much if Wacha deals deep into the game. Kansas City's hacky lineup will swing early and often against Bassitt, which should help the struggling Orioles starter.

With two pitchers doing just enough against two aggressive lineups, runs might be hard to come by. Take the Under.

Daulton Varsho brings a lot of pop from the left side of the plate, and Soriano has given up a little bit more power to lefties than righties this season. Varsho does seem to see the sinker well out of the pitcher's hand, which is the most used pitch Soriano throws against lefties. The Jays outfielder owns a .438 batting average and a .688 slugging percentage against the pitch.

Let's stay indoors and bet on a bat who has already homered in two straight games in Seattle with Shea Langeliers, who has launched eight homers this year. Logan Gilbert is a flyball pitcher, which is in our favor here, and Langeliers has also seen plenty of this Seattle bullpen and took it deep last night. Ultimately, this is a play on price, and getting elite HR hitters at +EV isn't a common occurrence. The fair price is around +380. Let's back the hot stick today with great expected value. 

The Cubbies are cruising along a 10-3 heater while scoring 6.4 runs per game and pacing the majors in wOBA. Chicago has also covered the run line in eight of the highlighted 10 wins and 14 of the past 22 at Wrigley Field. Philadelphia is projected to go with opener Kyle Backhus, and then have veteran Taijuan Walker in bulk relief, which sets up poorly for the Phillies. Walker has been saddled with a 5.08 ERA and 4.90 xFIP alongside the fourth lowest strikeout-to-walk rate (7.9%) in the majors across four seasons with the club, after all.

Don’t let the sub-4.00 ERA from Tomoyuki Sugano fool you. He’s been one of the luckiest pitchers to start the year, carrying a 7.71 xERA vs. a 3.92 ERA. He’s getting hit hard, running a low BABIP, and stranding 88% of runners — clear regression signals. The San Diego Padres, sitting at 16-7 SU, are well-positioned to stack runs and win by multiple runs. A late comeback is unlikely with a fully available bullpen, including Mason Miller, who was rested yesterday. The fair price on the moneyline sits around -195 versus a -165 market, and the run line breakeven is closer to -130, making +100 strong value. The Rockies were just shut out last night, and I'm hoping that struggle continues into today.

Ohtani racked up 10 Ks in his last start against the New York Mets. While San Fran is around the middle of the pack in team strikeouts, they’re swinging and missing a lot more lately, striking out nearly 10 times per game across their previous three contests. Also, Ohtani has collected 16 Ks in 12 innings of work at home.