The New York Mets sit atop the National League East but enter today’s series opener against the Atlanta Braves coming off the wrong end of a sweep against the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend.
The Mets now lead the Braves by just two games in the division standings and they will be in tough in Game 1 of this series as Atlanta is a moderate MLB betting favorite with Max Fried on the mound.
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Mets vs. Braves on Monday, May 17, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET.
Mets vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Monday, May 17, 2021
• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Mets vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires Sportsbook opened Atlanta at -124 and quickly jumped to -137, then moved further along to -152, where the moneyline sits at 4:15 p.m. ET. The Braves are landing 62 percent of tickets and 73 percent of money. The total opened at 8 and briefly dipped to 7.5, then returned to 8, with 79 percent of tickets/57 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMets vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Taijuan Walker (3-1, 2.20 ERA): Walker has been excellent his first year in Queens. The big right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and has given up just one run on five hits, while striking out 12, in 14 innings pitched over his last two starts.
Max Fried (1-1, 6.55 ERA): The Braves lefty was getting hammered early on this season, and then went to the IL with a hamstring injury. But he has looked like his old self since returning, allowing just two runs on six hits over his last 11 innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Mets: Michael Conforto OF (Questionable), Jeff McNeil 2B (Questionable), Brandon Nimmo OF (Out), J.D. Davis 3B (Out), Albert Almora OF (Out), Seth Lugo RP (Out), Dellin Betances RP (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Questionable), Cristian Pache OF (Out), Grant Dayton RP (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2-1 in the Mets' last eight games against NL East opponents and is 7-3 in Braves' last 10 games as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Mets’ eight-game winning streak came to a crashing halt at the Trop, getting outscored by the Rays 22-8 in the weekend series. But they’ll have a chance to bounce back with Walker on the bump.
Walker has been using a great mix of pitches, mostly a four-seamer, sinker, and slider, to keep hitters off-balance this season and has done so to great effect, limiting opponents to a .170 batting average this season. He has also pitched at least seven innings, with one earned run or fewer allowed, in three of his last four starts.
He faces an Atlanta lineup that embodies the new baseball swing-for-the-fences mentality. The Braves rank 20th in average and 21st in strikeouts with a big chunk of their production coming from the long ball — and Walker has only given up one home run all season.
While the Braves put their best foot forward with Fried, the number you are getting with the Mets, considering the way Walker is pitching, is too good to pass up. Bet the underdog in this one.
PREDICTION: Mets (+140)
Over/Under pick
While we like the Mets to win, there is a reason to like Fried in this matchup. As noted, the lefty is looking much more like the guy who finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting last season and has had a much better command of his off-speed pitches the last two starts.
Fried faces a Mets lineup that has been slumping for most of the season. New York ranks 27th in scoring at just 3.74 runs per game and is 24th in OPS. Fried has also allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts against the Mets dating back to the start of 2019.
We also mentioned that Walker has a very good chance for success against the Braves and when you consider the injuries both lineups are dealing with, it’s hard not to like the Under in this one.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Mets vs Braves betting card
- Mets (+140)
- Under 8 (-110)
Picks made on 5/17/2021 at 12:24 p.m. ET
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