Mets vs Marlins Picks and Predictions: Pitchers Havana Good Time in Miami

We're set for a good 'ol-fashioned pitcher's duel on Friday as the Mets and Marlins do battle in Miami, and we're backing a low-scoring contest, particularly early-on, with our MLB betting picks for this NL showdown.

Last Updated: Jun 24, 2022 11:53 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Taijuan Walker New York Mets MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins will renew acquaintances at LoanDepot Park on Friday night. 

The Mets took three of four from their NL East rivals in their first series of the season last weekend. Can the Marlins bounce back against the division leader? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs Marlins on Friday, June 24.

Mets vs Marlins odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Marlins were unveiled as consensus -138 moneyline favorites for this contest, and the line has been bet up just a few cents since, to as high as -148. 

The total opened at 7, and while the original number can still be found, most books are now offering 7.5, with a heavy vig on the Under. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Mets vs Marlins predictions

Picks made on 6/24/2022 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Mets vs Marlins game info

Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Date: Friday, June 24, 2022
First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: SNY, Bally Sports

Mets vs Marlins betting preview

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (5-2, 2.88 ERA): Walker was about as sharp as can be when last seen, holding the Marlins to one run on only two hits over 6 2-3 innings while striking out nine batters on Saturday. At one point, he sat down 18 straight Miami hitters. Walker had 10 Ks in his prior start, so he’s been quite difficult on the opposition of late. 

Sandy Alcantara (7-2, 1.72 ERA): Alcantara sports a 1.14 ERA in June after limiting the Mets to two runs over eight innings of work on Sunday. The effort was good enough to secure his fifth win over his last seven starts. Pitching deep into Friday night’s affair shouldn’t be a problem for Alcantara, as he’s tossed at least 100 pitches in each of his last seven outings. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Marlins: Jeff McNeil 2B/LF (Questionable), James McCann C (Probable), Collin Holderman RP (Out), Tylor Megill SP (Out), Jacob deGrom SP (Out), Travis Jankowski RF (Out), Trevor May RP (Out), Max Scherzer SP (Questionable), Carlos Carrasco (Questionable).
Mets: Louis Head SP (Out), Edward Cabrera RP (Out), Jesus Luzardo SP (Out), Anthony Bender RP (Out), Joey Wendle 2B (Out), Brian Anderson 3B (Out), Cole Sulser RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 6-2 in the Mets’ last eight games following an off day. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Mets

Mets vs Marlins picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Mets should emerge victorious in a probable pitcher’s duel on Friday night in Miami.

New York clearly boasts the better offense, as it’s third in the majors in runs per game (4.97) and second in batting average (.261), while the Marlins are 13th (4.63) and 14th (.245), respectively. 

Pete Alonso — who has a three-game RBI streak going — hit a grand slam in his team’s first victory over Miami last Friday. He has plenty of teammates getting on base in front of him, including Francisco Lindor. The everyday shortstop had four hits against the Marlins last week, including a pair of homers to go with seven RBI of his own. 

The Mets are hoping to have Jeff McNeil back in the lineup after he missed Tuesday and Wednesday’s games with a hamstring issue. He had four hits — two for extra bases — as well as four walks in last week’s series with the Fish. McNeil’s replacement — Luis Guillorme — has been quite handy himself at the plate, batting .371 over the last two weeks. 

If the Mets don’t solve Sandy Alcantara entirely, they can at least try to work the count and get into the bullpen earlier than the ninth inning this time around. The Marlins’ relievers are 23rd by ERA this season (4.33) and will likely be without lefty Steven Okert (2.38 ERA), who’s worked three straight games. 

Plenty of trends are pointing the Mets’ way in this one. The Amazins are 25-7 in their last 32 games following an off day, and 21-5 in their last 26 games following a loss. The Mets are also 40-19 in their last 59 games against teams with losing records, while Miami is 32-68 in its last 100 games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. 

Prediction: Mets moneyline (+128 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Taijuan Walker and Alcantara should give the opposition fits on the mound Friday night, leading to few runs coming across, especially early. 

Walker allowed only one hit over his first 19 batters faced when he last saw the Marlins on Saturday before running out of gas in the seventh inning. Not normally a strikeout pitcher, Walker has 19 Ks over his last two efforts, so he’s clearly on top of his game at the moment.

He’ll have a rested bullpen behind him, courtesy of the scheduled day off. The Mets are a modest 12th by ERA this season, but can line up their best arms behind Walker, including closer Edwin Diaz (14 saves). 

Meanwhile, the 1980s called, and they want Alcantara back. The Miami ace has gone no fewer than seven innings in each of his last eight starts, highlighted by two complete games. His strikeout/walk ratio is 53-9 in that span.

This has all the makings of a 1-1 game going into the ninth inning. Barring the unexpected, the Under should cash with ease. 

Prediction: Under 7.5 (-120 at PointsBet)

Best bet

A prop bet rising in popularity this season is No Runs First Inning, or “NRFI.” Bettors should not expect a first-inning ambush against Walker or Alcantara in this one.

Walker owns a fairly high .225 opponent batting average the first time around the order, but the Marlins are among the worst teams in the majors when it comes to getting off the right foot. Miami’s 0.31 first inning runs per game at home ranks 29th in baseball, ahead of only the Orioles (0.29). 

Meanwhile, the Mets are just 16th in first inning runs per game on the road (0.46). Alcantara owns a 1.36 ERA at LoanDepot Park this season, and opponents are batting just .189 against him the first time around. Brandon Nimmo is a mere 2-for-20 (.100) lifetime off Alcantara, so don’t anticipate him getting the Mets cooking early from the leadoff spot. 

Pick: No runs first inning (-128 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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