Dodgers vs Braves Picks and Predictions: Anderson Holds His Own on Mound

Julio Urias has had an uneven start to the season, and any perceived edge he has over Ian Anderson may not be so great. With the Dodgers slumping at Truist Park, we're backing the Braves as home dogs with our MLB betting picks.

Last Updated: Jun 24, 2022 10:52 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Two of the best teams in the National League meet for the first game of a three-game series culminating Friday evening. The Los Angeles Dodgers (43-25) send Julio Urias to the mound and will look for revenge after falling to the Atlanta Braves in six games in last year’s NLCS.

The Braves (41-30) were sloppy out of the gates this season but have started to warm up, going 7-3 over their last 10 games — Ian Anderson gets the nod tonight.

Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Braves on Friday, June 24.

Dodgers vs Braves odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Dodgers opened -130 across most books and there hasn’t been any line movement as of the time of writing. The best line available on the Braves is +114. Be sure to shop around on the total, as 9 and 9.5 are both available. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Dodgers vs Braves predictions

Picks made on 6/24/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Dodgers vs Braves game info

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
Date: Friday, June 24, 2022
First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet, Bally Sports

Dodgers vs Braves betting preview

Starting pitchers

Julio Urias (4-6, 2.56 ERA): Urias’ record doesn’t reflect how effective he’s been. Still, I have some slight concerns when looking at his peripherals. His ERA is nothing to scoff at, but his 3.17 xERA indicates some slight regression. His 4.35 FIP is also way above the 3.13 mark he set last year. His strikeout rate has dropped from 26.2% a year ago to 22.2% this year, and his walk rate is up one percent (5.1% to 6.1%). His 6.5% barrel rate isn’t great either. 

Ian Anderson (6-3, 4.35 ERA): The best part about Anderson’s profile is his 3.7% barrel rate. He’s doing a good job keeping hitters off balance and not allowing them make hard contact. He’s still only 24 years old and is learning on the job. This is his second year getting an extended look in the rotation after six very effective starts as a rookie in 2020. His 3.78 xERA is encouraging, but 1.84 strikeout-to-walk ratio will need to improve. 

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Dodgers: Mookie Betts RF (Out), Kevin Pillar CF (Out), Edwin Rios 3B (Out), Hanser Alberto 3B (Out), Caleb Ferguson RP (Out), Jimmy Nelson RP (Out), Victor Gonzalez RP (Out), Blake Treinen (Out).
Braves: Ozzie Albies 2B (Out), Eddie Rosario LF (Out), Manny Pina C (Out), Kirby Yates RP (Out), Luke Jackson RP (Out), Jay Jackson RP (Out), Tyler Matzek RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Braves are 5-1 in their last six Game 1s of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Braves

Dodgers vs Braves picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Despite the difference in ERAs (2.56 for Urias, 4.35 for Anderson), I don’t see a big edge for either team in the starting pitching department. Both hurlers aren’t striking out as many batters as they would like, and they both have FIPs above 4.00 — a discouraging signal for two promising young pitchers. 

Anderson’s 3.7% barrel rate is very good for a pitcher of any age, while Urias’ 6.5% rate indicates that he is allowing too much hard contact. That will come back to bite him if he doesn’t make some fixes — his strikeout rate is down from a year ago and he’s allowing batters to barrel the ball. 

Both lineups have been among the top in the league in recent performance. In the last 10 days, the Dodgers rank fifth in OPS, fifth in weighted on-base average, and third in weighted runs created plus. Over that same time span, the Braves rank fourth in OPS, fourth in wOBA, and fifth in wRC+.

The Braves have been one of MLB’s best teams against left-handed pitching, ranking second in both wOBA and wRC+ against southpaws this season. Those numbers haven’t been as good over the last 10 days (14th in wOBA, 16th in wRC+) which is a tad concerning, but that’s over a small sample size of 92 at-bats.

I don’t think there’s a lot separating these teams either at the plate or on the mound. Urias’ peripherals put him right in line with Anderson, and Anderson’s barrel rate is almost half of what Urias’ is. The Braves have hit lefties well this season. I’m inclined to take the underdog odds with Atlanta at home.

Prediction: Braves moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

Atlanta really does hit left-handed pitching well. It’s part of what makes the Braves a difficult matchup for Los Angeles come playoff time. The Over is 13-5-1 in ATL’s last 19 home games vs. a left-handed starter.

Dodger bats have been hot — the Over is 4-0-1 in their last five overall, and is also 4-0-1 in their last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Both lineups have been performing at a Top-5 rate in baseball, which immediately makes me eye the Over.

These are two quality young starting pitchers, but neither has been performing at their best. Both are striking out fewer than eight batters per nine innings and both have a FIP above 4.00. Urias is giving up too many barrels for someone pitching to contact as much as he is, while Anderson’s 1.84 strikeout-to-walk ratio must improve going forward for him to hope for sustained success in the majors.

I lean toward the Over.

Prediction: Over 9 (-118 at Unibet)

Best bet

The Dodgers are 0-5 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.

The Braves have mashed against left-handed pitching, going 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a left-handed starter. They’ve been hot after a sluggish start to the season — World Series hangover, anyone? — at 20-6 in their last 26 overall.

Atlanta has been good in Game 1s, going 5-1 over their last six opening games of a series. The Dodgers have been treading water in series openers all season. 

I’ll take the underdog odds on the home team in what is a very close handicap.

Pick: Braves moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)

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