There's no shortage of players smashing baseballs out of the ballpark lately, and I've found value in my MLB player props home run analysis.
Today's picks will include Luis Garcia, Rafael Devers, and Junior Caminero.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 4.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Luis Garcia |
+391 |
 Junior Caminero |
+367 |
 Rafael Devers |
+238 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +7492 |
Home run pick: Luis Garcia (+391)
Washington Nationals star Luis Garcia is flourishing right now. He has a .750 ISO across his last six games, going deep five times during that span. Garcia had two home runs on Friday evening against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He also has a 56.5% hard hit rate over the last week.
Garcia will face Braxton Ashcraft today. He's allowed 2.25 HR/9 across his previous two outings, and the righty gave up three homers last time out to the Philadelphia Phillies. Opponents also have a 57.1% hard hit rate against him during that span.
This is a clear opportunity for Garcia to stay hot.
I'll play this pick up to +300.
- Time: 11:05 a.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Home run pick: Junior Caminero (+367)
Junior Caminero cannot be stopped. The Tampa Bay Rays slugger has homered in five of his last six games, and he carries a .600 ISO over the last week into tonight's matchup against the Houston Astros.
Caminero's 55.5% hard hit rate over the last week says it all. He is truly squaring up everything right now, and 55.5% of his contact has been through the air during that span.
He'll face the dominant Hunter Brown tonight, but it's impossible to ignore Caminero's recent brilliance. No matter who is on the hill, he's dominating. Also, Brown has allowed a home run in each of his last two starts, and he's allowed a 42.9% hard hit rate in those outings as well.
I'll play this pick up to +300.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rays.TV, Space City Home Network
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+238)
San Francisco Giants star Rafael Devers heads into a favorable matchup tonight against Tomoyuki Sugano. Devers has clubbed four home runs in his last six games while posting a .600 ISO. He has a mind-boggling 62.5% hard hit rate and 25% barrel rate during that span.
Sugano has had trouble with the home run all year, and that's been no different lately. The righty has given up 2.14 HR/9 across his previous four starts while posting a 7.29 ERA. Playing at Coors Field here also heavily benefits Devers due to just how much the ball carries in Denver.
I'll play this pick up to +200.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area
- HR picks: 14-72, -6.56 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Luis Garcia |
Bet Now +7492 |
| Junior Caminero |
|
| Rafael Devers |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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